The essence of tariffs is monetary policy. Although a 25% interest rate in Europe is already bad, if the Federal Reserve's dot plot in March shows no rate cuts until 2025, or only one rate cut, this could be the beginning of negative sentiment. Even then, it wouldn't mean all negative sentiment has been exhausted, as there is still a possibility of rate hikes. Although the probability is low, if inflation continues to rise and fluctuate, the market may start to anticipate further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, which would be more troublesome.

Because what we might be facing is a real economic recession. Of course, if there is an economic recession, it would be the final drop, so I might temporarily halt my bottom-fishing plans and switch to a wait-and-see approach, especially with the core PCE on Friday. In fact, if the core PCE is good, it won't drop further; if it's not good, the significance of bottom-fishing would be minimal for now, and we can just wait for the March data.

So, in terms of monetary policy, the worst time might only come when an economic recession occurs. At that time, it would force the Federal Reserve to cut rates early because an economic recession will definitely lower inflation. However, the consequence would inevitably be that the risk market experiences a golden pit.

I really didn't expect that I would have to say in Q1 that I anticipate an economic recession.

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