According to the latest Wintermute report, current conditions in the crypto economy—particularly among major assets—suggest that an altcoin season is unlikely in the near term. Instead, the setup favors bitcoin ( BTC) outperforming altcoins.
The report highlights BTC’s price range, which stood about 16% below its all‑time high at the time of writing. Historically, when BTC trades between 10% and 20% from its peak, it outperforms altcoins roughly 54% of the time, with the odds rising to 58% when BTC nears the $100,000 level.
After managing to hold the above $100,000 threshold since late June, BTC finally slipped below this key level in early November, driven by persistent bearish sentiment. Although a recovery rally quickly pushed it back above $100K, the cryptocurrency has since struggled to reclaim the bullish momentum seen in September and October.
This extended period of stagnation and failure to find new highs appears to validate analyses from firms like Wintermute, which have pointed to exhaustion in buying pressure and signaled a challenging outlook for immediate, significant price appreciation.
Still, macro factors may soon shift. News of a U.S. government funding deal between Republicans and eight Democratic senators sparked a BTC rally to $106,000, underscoring how political developments can buoy the market.
Although the recent “dinocoin” rally supports Wintermute’s thesis, the report notes that some blue‑chip altcoins—including HYPE, ENA, and UNI—continue to show relative strength, aided by clearer U.S. regulatory signals and optimism around domestic market reopening. Appetite also remains for DePIN, L2s, and AI tokens, though market breadth is narrow and narratives are fragile.
“For the next leg, majors need to lead. History suggests alts only follow once BTC trades closer to its highs. At ~105K (-16% from ATH), that rotation hasn’t been triggered yet. This looks less like stagnation and more like a turning phase: structure’s cleaner, macro’s supportive, and the market feels ready to build again,” the report states.
Wintermute concludes that the next wave of volatility will likely be driven by policy and politics rather than positioning.
- Is an altcoin season expected soon? Wintermute says altcoin season is unlikely, with BTC set to outperform majors.
- Where does bitcoin stand now? BTC is ~18% below its all‑time high, trading near $103K to $105K after slipping under $100K.
- What factors could shift the market? U.S. government funding deals and political developments are driving BTC rallies globally.
- Are any altcoins showing strength? Blue‑chip names like HYPE, ENA, and UNI show relative gains amid clearer U.S. regulatory signals.
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