Dear friends, I am Sister Qinglan. Today, the market sentiment was completely ignited by two heavyweight news items. First, the details of the US-Iran agreement were revealed, involving the reopening of the Strait and the unblocking of ports, significantly reducing geopolitical risk premiums, which directly stimulated buying in risk assets, with Bitcoin quickly breaking through the $77,000 level after the announcement. Second, the HYPE buyback mechanism has become the core driving force for the price increase, with a scale that can reach several hundred million dollars each quarter. This continuous buying not only benefits HYPE itself but also indirectly drives the upward movement of mainstream coins like Ethereum. The combination of these two pieces of news injected strong bullish momentum into today’s market, but we need to calmly analyze whether the technicals are ready to absorb this force.

Current Price and Time

The current time is May 24, 12:50. The Bitcoin quote is 76,787 USDT. The 24-hour increase reached 1.67%, with the market showing a strong rebounding pattern under the influence of the news. The Fear and Greed Index is only 25, in the extreme fear range, which often indicates that the market sentiment has not yet fully shifted to greed and may instead serve as potential support for the continuation of the trend.

Multi-Cycle Status Overview

Let’s first look at the daily level. The daily MA5 is at 76,849, MA10 is at 77,280, and MA30 is at 78,612. The price is currently below these three moving averages, indicating that the mid- to long-term trend is still bearish. The MACD DIF is -189.19, DEA is 356.31, and the histogram is -545.50, showing that bearish momentum is still being released. The RSI is at 29.20, in the oversold region, which usually indicates a high probability of a short-term rebound, but a trend reversal requires more confirmation.

At the 4-hour level, the 4-hour MA5 is at 76,358, MA10 is at 75,822, and MA30 is at 76,810. The price has crossed above MA5 and MA10 but is still below MA30. The MACD DIF is -347.56, DEA is -445.56, and the histogram is 98.00. Although DIF and DEA are still negative, the histogram has remained positive, indicating that bearish momentum is waning. The RSI is at 42.80, rebounding from the oversold region, showing that rebound momentum is accumulating.

At the 1-hour level, the 1-hour MA5 is at 76,818, MA10 is at 76,750, and MA30 is at 75,758. The price has stabilized above these three moving averages. The MACD DIF is 279.64, DEA is 148.34, and the histogram is 131.30, indicating strong and continuously expanding bullish momentum. The RSI is at 70.01, close to the overbought region, but no divergence signal has yet appeared. The EMA55 is at 76,363, and the current price of 76,787 is above this line, which is a key support for the bullish trend.

At the 15-minute level, the 15-minute MA5 is at 76,784, MA10 is at 76,816, and MA30 is at 76,761. The price is narrowly oscillating near the moving averages. The MACD DIF is 87.87, DEA is 127.66, and the histogram is -39.79, indicating a slight top divergence signal in the short term. The RSI is at 43.16, in a neutral and slightly weak area, showing that there is short-term pullback pressure.

TPV Signal Verification

According to the Qinglan TPV system, we use the 1-hour EMA55 as the dividing line between bullish and bearish. The current price of 76,787 is far above EMA55's 76,363, and in the past 8 hourly candles, the closing price has been greater than EMA55 on 8 occasions, with 0 crossings. The price is 0.55% away from EMA55, which does not meet the oscillation threshold; therefore, it is currently in a clear bullish trend area.

Long Position Condition Verification. First, the price has stabilized above the 1-hour EMA55, and two consecutive hourly candles have closed above EMA55, which has been met. Second, in terms of support stabilization, the price showed a long lower shadow rebound after breaking through 76,000, and quickly rebounded after touching the low around 76,300, which belongs to an effective low-point rebound pattern. Third, regarding the exhaustion of bearish momentum, the 1-hour MACD histogram has been continuously positive over multiple periods and is expanding, while the RSI has risen from below 30 to 70, showing an obvious bullish engulfing pattern. All three conditions are met, and the system issues a clear buy signal.

Short Position Conditions do not hold, as the price is above EMA55 and there hasn't been a situation where two consecutive candles have closed below EMA55. The oscillation conditions also do not hold, as there have been 0 crossings, and the price deviation exceeds 0.3%.

On-Chain Funds

On-chain data shows that the Fear and Greed Index is at 25, indicating extreme fear. Historical experience shows that extreme fear is often a characteristic of the market bottom area, especially when combined with news, which can trigger a retaliatory rebound. Bitcoin's market share is at 58.07%, which is relatively high, indicating that funds are still concentrating on Bitcoin, but the ripple effect of altcoins is also increasing. The 24-hour increase is 1.67%, with good volume support, and there has not been a significant stop in the increase.

Key Defense and Attack Levels

The first resistance level above is at the round number of 77,000, which is yesterday's breakout high and also a psychological resistance level. The second resistance level is around 78,000, corresponding to the daily MA10 and previous consolidation levels. The first support level below is at 76,300, which is at the position of the 1-hour EMA55, being the lifeline of the bullish trend. The second support level is at 75,500, corresponding to the 4-hour MA5 and previous lows. If the price falls below 76,300, we need to be cautious of a weakening trend.

Trading Idea

Based on the bullish signals of the Qinglan TPV system, combined with positive news, the current strategy mainly focuses on buying on the pullback.

Direction: Long.

Entry condition: Wait for the price to retest near the 1-hour EMA55, in the range of 76,300-76,400, and enter upon confirmation with a long lower shadow or bottom formation. If the price breaks directly above 77,000 and stabilizes, a follow-up long position can also be taken upon confirmation of the retest.

Stop Loss: Set below 75,800, which is below the 4-hour MA10 and previous lows, to prevent rapid declines after false breakouts.

Target level: First target 78,000, second target 79,000. If bullish momentum continues, it can look towards the 80,000 round number.

Risk Warning

Although geopolitical risks have eased, the details of the agreement have not yet been finalized, and any reversals may trigger violent fluctuations. At the same time, the 1-hour RSI is close to overbought, indicating a need for a short-term pullback; do not chase highs, and patiently wait for confirmation signals after the pullback.

Follow the Qinglan Crypto Classroom to seize more trading opportunities! Welcome to visit the official website www.qinglan.org


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