(1) Macroeconomic News
1. Federal Reserve Core Negative News
Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Waller showed a hawkish stance, with U.S. April PPI and CPI exceeding expectations, leading the market to price in a probability of interest rate hikes by the end of 2026; U.S. Treasury yields rose, and high interest rates continued to suppress crypto risk assets, with recent ETF funds experiencing a consistent slight net outflow.
2. Short-term Easing of Geopolitical Disturbances in the Middle East
Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran had basically reached an agreement, with expectations of easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a temporary recovery in risk sentiment; however, Iran's official statements were not complete, and geopolitical risks have not been eliminated, resulting in fluctuating market conditions, with BTC testing the bottom and rebounding during the day.
3. Progress of U.S. Crypto Legislation
The "CLARITY Act on Digital Assets" has entered the contest stage in the Senate; the enactment of this bill could clarify BTC's status as a digital commodity, which would be positive for institutional funds entering the market in the medium to long term, but there is currently no substantial market-driving force in the short-term.
(2) Market Conditions
1. BTC: The intraday low was around $74,000, currently priced at $76,700, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.8%;
ETH: Current price around $2,120, with a 24-hour increase of 2.7%.
2. Market Funding: A total of $737 million was liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, affecting 110,000 people, as longs and shorts alternated in liquidation, reflecting a clear range-bound structure, while the main players cleaned up short-term leveraged positions.
3. Sectors: Mainstream coins rebounded slightly, while AI and DEFI small-cap coins saw stronger rebounds; the market is in a weak rebound phase, not a trend reversal.
(3) Overall Market Impact of News
1. Short-term Impact (1-3 days)
Easing geopolitical tensions brought about a repair in sentiment, resulting in an oversold rebound; however, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve remain unchanged, limiting the rebound space, leading to a broad range-bound trend with frequent high leverage liquidations.
2. Medium-term Impact (1-4 weeks)
① The Federal Reserve's June meeting will be a key node, with a series of officials' speeches continuing to disrupt coin prices;
② The situation in the Middle East still poses the greatest black swan risk, with escalation of conflict causing BTC to decline again;
③ If the U.S. crypto legislation provides phased benefits, it could help underpin the downside space.
Overall conclusion: Wide range oscillation, with no unilateral bull or bear market.
II. Key Price Levels Reference
1. Short-term Resistance
First resistance: 77,500-78,000; strong resistance 80,000
2. Short-term Support
First support: 75,000; strong support 74,000
ETH resistance 2,200, support 2,050
Intraday Short-term Strategy
① Long Strategy
Stabilize after a pullback to the 75,000-75,300 range (4-hour stop loss with a bullish candle), go long with a light position
-Stop loss: 74,700
-First take profit 77,200; second take profit 77,800, exit in batches
② Short Strategy
Short at resistance during the 77,600-78,000 rebound
-Stop loss 78,450
-Take profit 76,200 → 75,300, reduce positions in batches
2. Swing Contract Strategy (3-7 days)
1. If the price fails to break above 80,000, the overall bias is weak, primarily shorting on highs without blindly chasing longs;
2. If it effectively breaks below 74,000, lightly short with expectations down to around 72,000;
3. If it stabilizes above 80,000, then go long in the trend, aiming towards around 83,000.
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