On May 24, 2026, multiple public materials almost simultaneously presented two seemingly independent but entangled timelines: on one side, Republican lawmakers accelerated the push for the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) legislation, attempting to include Bitcoin in the narrative of sovereign reserve assets during the window of control over both houses of Congress — according to a single source, their conceptual strategic reserve goal even directly targets approximately 5% of the global circulating supply, totaling up to about 1 million BTC; on the other side, security researchers (including Project Eleven CEO Alex Pruden) continuously raised the alarm, warning that quantum computing, under the influence of artificial intelligence, might breach security gates originally positioned in the 2030s or even 2040s. The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" and "sovereign reserve asset" is being amplified by national-level forces, yet the public key cryptography security window supporting this narrative is being compressed by the AI+quantum combination. This misalignment between the rising narrative and shrinking security buffer constitutes the core contradiction of this article: as the United States attempts to create a Bitcoin treasury, how does it bet on an uncertain quantum threat timeline and reserve enough safe retreat for the moment that might arrive sooner than expected.

Bitcoin into the Treasury? ARMA Act Accelerates Sprint

Thus, Republican lawmakers have given this wager an extremely technocratic name — the American Reserve Modernization Act, abbreviated as ARMA. The core idea of the act is not hidden: to establish a strategic-level Bitcoin reserve at the national level, elevating Bitcoin from a "risk asset" in the market to "digital gold" written into the sovereign balance sheet, regarded alongside existing foreign exchange and gold as part of sovereign reserve assets. Supporters' narrative is straightforward: once the U.S. Department of the Treasury nominally holds a large-scale Bitcoin reserve, the tags of Bitcoin as "digital gold" and sovereign reserve asset will no longer be mere community rhetoric, but will receive the stamp of approval from the national machinery in the form of legal text.

All of this must be accomplished within a limited political window. ARMA is being promoted primarily by Republican lawmakers, and public materials indicate they hope to leverage the current control over both houses of Congress to pass the act through both chambers and submit it for signing, locking in the legal status of the Bitcoin treasury before any potential change in the power dynamics. According to a single source, in the conceptual draft, the target scale of the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve is set at approximately 5% of the global circulating supply, corresponding to "up to about 1 million BTC". Although there are detailed differences between various draft texts, this scale expectation already sends a significant signal to the market: once ARMA is genuinely implemented, the U.S. will not only become one of the largest holders of Bitcoin globally but will also elevate Bitcoin to an unprecedented status as a symbol of national strategy.

AI Pushing Quantum Acceleration, Security Buffer Period Compressed

In the eyes of ARMA's proponents, the step of Bitcoin moving towards "national asset" was initially thought to be standing on a relatively generous technological buffer period. Over the past few years, while security researchers have been discussing the potential destructive capabilities of quantum computing on public key cryptography systems like elliptic curves, they also acknowledge that the ECDSA relied upon by Bitcoin theoretically exposes risks once faced with universal quantum computers. However, mainstream assessments often place the timeline of real threats in the 2030s or even 2040s. This timeline leaves an often-cited "ten years or more" security assumption for the public chain community to support long-term holding and sovereign reserve narratives.

However, recent warnings indicate that this timeline itself is beginning to wobble. According to research disclosed by a single source, artificial intelligence tools have already begun to be used in quantum algorithm design, error correction, and experimental optimization, potentially speeding up the process of making quantum computing practical, thereby pushing the threat window originally arranged for the 2030s to the 2040s forward. Project Eleven CEO Alex Pruden's judgment is even more direct: "The future security landscape will be completely different. The combination of quantum computing and AI is compressing the security buffer we originally thought we had." In security discussions, the "store first, decrypt later" attack model has also reemerged — attackers can now archive on-chain records, waiting to decrypt them once quantum capabilities mature; meanwhile, some research emphasizes that AI may also help design and validate new quantum-resistant cryptographic schemes, providing tools for future key rotation and address migration. There remains significant divergence in both academia and the industry regarding the specific timing and destructive capabilities of quantum threats, but it is certain that the long-term security assumptions relied upon by assets like Bitcoin are being eroded by uncertainty. In the face of sovereign reserve concepts like ARMA, the security buffer period is no longer a premise that can be easily written into planning footnotes.

How National Bitcoin Reserves Hedge Quantum Risks

If ARMA is advanced as envisioned, the "treasury" of sovereign entities like the United States will be more than just a theoretical concept; it will be a complete collection of UTXOs on the blockchain belonging to the state. Their security is directly tied to the current cryptographic assumptions of Bitcoin — the public key signing mechanism represented by ECDSA remains the only proof of ownership. Security research has long warned that sufficiently powerful universal quantum computers could theoretically attack these public key systems, especially those addresses where public keys have already been exposed on-chain: for example, old addresses that have been spent once and have clear public keys written in scripts, as well as large UTXOs that have not been moved for years but must expose the public key once spent. Around the "store first, decrypt later" attack model, some have envisioned attackers archiving on-chain records today, waiting for future technology to mature before collectively decrypting them. This model remains controversial but, for national-level reserves, it at least alters the intuition that "time is naturally on our side."

The problem is that it is almost impossible to wait until Bitcoin completes a quantum-resistant upgrade across the network before starting to establish the sovereign reserve. A more feasible path is "reserve first, upgrade later": under the current ECDSA rules, arrange to gather hundreds of thousands of BTC into addresses controlled by the treasury through key distribution, deep cold storage, and multi-signature arrangements, and then at some future point, in line with the consensus of the entire network, rhythmically migrate from these old addresses to new quantum-resistant address formats. This rhythm must not only synchronize with global node software upgrades but also consider the overall migration window of all on-chain UTXOs with exposed public keys; otherwise, even if the national treasury has advanced schemes designed with the help of AI, it might be forced to carry out a high-risk collective key change within a limited time along with the entire network, and whether time is on either side will depend on who takes that first step.

Washington Bets on Bitcoin, Chain Reaction of the Technology Race

If ARMA is eventually implemented, what the U.S. Treasury writes on its ledger may no longer only be about gold and foreign exchange. According to the conceptual scale given by a single source, the strategic reserve goal targets approximately 5% of the global circulating supply, totaling up to about 1 million BTC; once legally endorsed, the United States will not only hope to rank among the largest holders of Bitcoin globally, but will also establish an unprecedented symbolic status for Bitcoin within the sovereign reserve system. The camp supporting ARMA is betting precisely on this point: in their view, holding Bitcoin at the sover

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