Analysis of Non-Farm Data from Last Night:
1. Stable Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is at 4.1%, lower than the Federal Reserve's expected 4.2% for 2024, indicating a relatively robust job market and a lower probability of a trading recession.
2. Employment Adjustment: After a significant increase in employment numbers last month, there was a substantial downward adjustment this month, but the unemployment rate did not rise, and the labor participation rate decreased, suggesting that there is no panic in the market, and the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining its established policy is high.
- Market Impact: The stable unemployment rate and employment adjustments did not trigger market panic, supporting expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is favorable for the market.
Current Market Positives and Negatives:
Investors should be cautious of blind price predictions, as key events such as elections, power transitions, and shifts in monetary policy are gradually unfolding, all part of trend evolution, and these cycles (elections, halving, rate cuts) are not instantaneous but rather ongoing processes.
Recently, the short-term significance of pure data analysis has diminished, as market sentiment dominates, especially with focal points like elections and earnings reports. Similar to the impact of BTC spot ETF news on sentiment from December to January, which far exceeded data influence.
Current dominant factors:
Election Cycle affecting risk markets.
Halving Cycle stimulating market potential.
Shift to Looser Monetary Policy increasing investor risk appetite.
FASB Fair Value Accounting impacting listed companies.
SAB121 Reapproval boosting BTCfi.
Spot ETF Capital Inflows enhancing market purchasing power.
Simultaneously existing negative factors:
Rising Unemployment Rate signaling economic recession.
High Interest Rates causing market uncertainty.
Resurgence of Inflation or a restart of monetary tightening.
Democratic Election having a double-edged sword effect on crypto industry sentiment.
Increased Regulation targeting sensitive industries.
Escalation of War risks.
Investors should clarify the current trend and cycle position, making rational investment judgments rather than acting blindly on price fluctuations. Understanding liquidity conditions is crucial, as funds tend to seek safe and quality narrative assets like BTC during tight liquidity. Altcoins should wait for the right timing; do not rush.
BTC
Yesterday's report indicated a rebound demand near 68500, but the price dropped to around 68800, missing the opportunity! It also suggested that the rebound would not exceed 71600, continuing downward! Those who followed this are not wrong about a profit of over 2000 points! The current price is between 69600-68500; if you can't resist the urge, you can try buying, with the target area still above 71600-73000! Stop loss below 68500! The ideal accumulation buying area is in the H4 demand zone of 67000-66500!
ETH
Yesterday's rebound did not hold above 2550, peaking around 2590! Continuing upward! Those with limit orders too precise likely missed the opportunity! Currently, if it holds above 2550, look up to 2600 and above! Otherwise, still focus on buying opportunities in the 2460-2430 area below!
SOL
Yesterday's report indicated a buying opportunity in the 166-162 range, with a rebound target of 174! If it doesn't exceed 174, continue downward! It's all about capturing the highs and lows! If this doesn't make money, where can you argue? Currently, as long as it doesn't break 162, you can still try buying; stop loss below 162, with upward pressure still at 174-177!
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