Cryptoquant‘s Bitcoin Network Activity Index, a key metric tracking transactions and user engagement, has fallen 15% since November 2024, now standing at 3,760—the lowest level since February 2024. The number of daily BTC transactions has also declined sharply, down 53% from its September 2024 peak of 734,000 to just 346,000 today, Cryptoquant researchers report.

Source: Cryptoquant Insights Report

A primary factor behind the decline, according to Cryptoquant, is the collapse in usage of the Runes protocol. “The decline in Bitcoin’s network activity can be mostly explained by the collapse in the use of the Runes protocol to mint tokens on the Bitcoin network. This is evident in the total daily number of OP RETURN codes in bitcoin transactions, which the Runes protocol uses to write data about token mints and transfers on the network.”

Cryptoquant’s report added:

When the Runes protocol emerged in April 2024, the daily number of OP RETURN codes spiked to 802K. However, the number of OP RETURN code has plummeted since, with only 10K OP RETURN codes used.

Cryptoquant also highlights that Bitcoin’s mempool, which holds unconfirmed transactions waiting to be processed, has nearly emptied. The total number of transactions in the mempool has dropped from 287,000 in December 2024 to just 3,000 today—a 99% decline. Cryptoquant researchers note that the last time the mempool was this inactive was in March 2022.

Lower transaction volumes have also impacted Bitcoin’s fee market. Cryptoquant’s analysis shows that total daily transaction fees have dropped to $593,000, a sharp decline from $4.7 million on Oct. 30, 2024. This reduction in fee revenue, Cryptoquant reports, means that transaction fees now make up just 1.8% of miners’ total income, potentially affecting miner profitability.

According to Cryptoquant’s valuation model, bitcoin’s fair value currently lies between $48,000 and $95,000 based on its network activity. With bitcoin’s current price between $98,000 to $99,000, Cryptoquant researchers suggest that the cryptocurrency may be overvalued, as it has historically traded within this valuation range.

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