I. Fundamental Analysis

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CPI Data: Yesterday, the CPI data was officially released. The data shows that the published value is 2.8, while the forecast value is 2.9. This result indicates that the market has received good news, which is likely one of the factors driving the price of Bitcoin upward. As an important indicator of the macro economy, CPI data's impact on the cryptocurrency market cannot be ignored. Students need to continuously pay attention to changes in such data to better grasp market trends.

ETF Data: Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs increased by 76.3 million USD, marking a shift from previous continuous outflows, with funds beginning to flow back in. However, it is important to note that the amount of returning funds is very small, and tomorrow's data may change accordingly. Students should maintain a cautious attitude when observing the fund flows of Bitcoin ETFs and analyze multiple factors comprehensively.

Whale Movements: From the data on Bitcoin accumulation and reduction by the top 100 whale addresses, only one whale's change is particularly significant. The 118th whale (previously within the top 100) reduced its holdings by 3,740 Bitcoins, with the reduction price around 80,000 USD. While some may think this reduction occurred at a low point, from a medium to long-term perspective, Bitcoin still has room to test lower levels. Overall, there has been an outflow of 2,992 Bitcoins.

II. Technical Analysis Interpretation

Bitcoin: On the weekly chart, it has reached the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with a price of 76,000 USD, very close to the previous low. Looking back at history, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands was broken during the last consolidation period, after which a breakout led to an upward trend. The first breakout occurred in October 2023, with a price of 25,000 USD, followed by a rise.

Bitcoin has experienced multiple upward breakouts through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and each breakout followed by a retest has brought new upward opportunities. Therefore, the area around 76,000 USD may become a recent low. The strong resistance level for Bitcoin is the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart, but from the two K-lines on the weekly chart, the probability of Bitcoin reaching that position is relatively low.

Observing the direction of the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, it is clearly downward. Although there was a rebound to around 98,000 USD, as well as rebounds to 94,000 USD and 92,000 USD when Trump announced strategic reserves, the overall trend is downward. Jiugo believes that the high point of this Bitcoin rebound needs to closely monitor the position of the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 87,500 USD; if it reaches that position, it is highly likely to continue a downward correction.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is at the neckline, around 84,000 - 85,000 USD. If this position breaks, it may form a head and shoulders bottom structure, further pushing upward. There is an 8,000-point fluctuation space from 84,000 USD to 76,000 USD; if it moves up another 8,000 points from 84,000 USD, the price will approach 92,000 USD.

Therefore, students should closely monitor the breakout situation at 86,000 USD, as well as the resistance at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 87,000 USD. Of course, we should not be overly optimistic, as overall, Bitcoin is still in a downward trend, currently just in an adjustment rebound.

Ethereum: The performance of Ethereum on the weekly chart is crucial. Currently, the price of Ethereum has reached near an important trend line, corresponding to a price range of 1,900 - 1,800 USD, which may be the current stage low for Ethereum. If this week’s closing can be above 1,900 USD, i.e., above the trend line, the price of Ethereum may enter a consolidation pattern similar to the previous period, or even have the opportunity for an upward breakout.

Additionally, Ethereum has a Prague upgrade in April, which may impact price trends. However, the key lies in this week’s closing situation, which students need to pay close attention to.

From the hourly level, the price of Ethereum fluctuates around 1,900 USD, and the current market is in a wait-and-see state. If a second downward test occurs, students may consider entering the market. The lowest price of Ethereum in the previous period dropped to 1,754 USD, which is very close to our expected buying range of 1,500 - 1,600 USD.

Today, a comprehensive analysis of the cryptocurrency market was conducted, and we have added some new teachers who will focus on developing contract trading plans. This is a rare opportunity for students; if interested in participating, please contact the assistant to sign up!

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