Once I got too immersed in writing a story about my big brother, I finished and realized the U.S. stock market had already closed, and I hadn't submitted my assignment yet. Every time I plan to submit it early, it ends up being late. Today's market was still quite good; although the stock index futures didn't perform well before the market opened, once European trading began, the index futures almost completed a reversal from decline to rise, especially after the retail data was released, with both the Nasdaq and S&P showing good performance by the close. Even Bitcoin nearly broke through to $85,000.

As prices rise, investor sentiment also begins to stir. From the open contracts of Bitcoin, we can see that there has been an upward trend in open contracts over the last 24 hours. Investors have started to engage in a tug-of-war between long and short positions, but for now, it seems to be minor skirmishes. The real factor that can determine short-term price movements will be the interest rate meeting on the 20th.

The importance of the interest rate meeting has been discussed for several days now. The dot plot, recession, and balance sheet reduction are the main narratives this time. It seems that investors worldwide are paying attention to this Federal Reserve meeting. An adjustment in interest rates is almost impossible, and no one should hold any expectations; the focus will still be on Powell's speech.

Whether it’s a reversal or a rebound, the 20th may not provide a final answer, but it will certainly present an opportunity in the short term. As for how to choose, that will depend on each individual's judgment.

Looking back at the #Bitcoin data, even though it’s a workday, the trading volume is still not high, possibly due to the continuous rise. Many investors have reduced their trading frequency, and even short-term investors are not rushing to participate in trading. This could also be because the market has a positive expectation for the 20th; if it aligns with market expectations, there is still a chance to profit by buying at the current price.

With low trading volume, similar to the weekend, there is naturally no damage to the support. The dense chip area between $93,000 and $98,000 remains intact, and there are no signs of panic. However, the bottom formation around $83,000, although still very immature, has started to show signs. If it oscillates for a few more months, the bottom formation is likely to shift downward.

Of course, the market may not give that much time. Let's wait until after the 20th; market sentiment is already concentrated around that date.

Data has been updated, address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing

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