What do you think is the biggest difference between people? I believe it is "prejudice," which is the gap in cognition. A person with an extremely open mind can accept all viewpoints that differ from their own, rather than thinking in a black-and-white manner. So, how can we eliminate prejudice? The best way is through cooperation, not competition. Our most important task is to deeply understand how the market operates and how to deal with its operations!
Market Overview
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks hint at the danger of stagflation, causing the Nasdaq to drop over 3%. Nvidia and AMD once plunged 10%, but the decline narrowed by the close. The China concept index fell nearly 3%. The European tech sector dropped 2%, with the underperforming ASML falling over 5%.
After Powell's speech, U.S. Treasury yields accelerated downward, hitting a one-week low, declining for three consecutive days; the dollar index fell 1% during the session, approaching a three-year low; the yen rebounded to a six-month high, and the offshore yuan rose 400 points to break 7.30; Bitcoin once surged over $2,000, reaching $85,000.
Gold surged over 3% during the session. Crude oil rebounded nearly 2%.
Market Review:
As shown in the chart below:
The chart shows the daily price of Bitcoin. In the last six trading days, the price has fluctuated around the 83333--85555 range, with overall volatility being small. The daily chart is consolidating in an alternating pattern of bullish and bearish candles.
The above chart is still the daily chart of Bitcoin, with the chart zoomed out a bit for a better overview! Let's review the overall situation!
This round of bull market started in March 2024, which is the horizontal consolidation within the box, followed by a zigzag upward movement, and then a rapid breakout above the horizontal consolidation high point of 74000, leading to a price explosion and a subsequent acceleration of the bull market. From November 7, 2024, to December 17, the price quickly surged before entering a consolidation phase. On January 20, 2025, when Trump took office, the price experienced a fluctuation of 10,000 points on that day. The price peaked at 110,000 before starting a long decline, which has continued to this moment!
In the above chart, I have marked a few lines for you: 91500, 86500, and 74000. These prices are all key positions on the entire chart. The current wave of decline has stopped at 74000. Why did it stop at 74000? As shown in the chart, the answer is in the chart. Why did the recent six trading days' high point reach 86500 and then return to the consolidation range? The answer is still in the chart.
Both 91500 and 86500 can be seen as the starting or ending points of the M-top of the decline from the 110,000 high.
Why was 74000 able to stop the decline? The answer is still in the chart.
As shown, 74000 is the high-low conversion point of the two previous market waves. As reviewed, 74000 is the high point of the horizontal consolidation. After breaking through here, the price officially entered the super explosive phase!
Market Outlook:
As shown in the chart, this is still the daily chart of Bitcoin, with Fibonacci retracement levels added. Is the chart clearer now?
From the high point on January 20, 2025, returning to the previous horizontal consolidation high point near 74000, a brief top-bottom conversion has formed. The price is currently maintaining a rebound of nearly 10,000 points above 74000.
The first touch of the previous high point and breakout point near 74000 requires and is necessary to be polite and humble. The decline from 110,000 to 74,000 lasted a full two months, with both the magnitude and duration being similar, a short-term break is needed. There is no market that rises or falls forever; all need a break!
Has 74000 bottomed out? The captain expects that it is unlikely to see a bottom here so easily!
I want to emphasize that at this stage, there is no basis for bottom-fishing in any cryptocurrency.
The captain predicts that 74000 will not be the lowest price of the entire wave of decline, nor will it be the bottom. As mentioned above, after two months of decline, a break is needed. Do not easily attempt to bottom-fish during a break; what you think is the bottom may actually be the mid-level. Experts never easily attempt to bottom-fish!
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When will BTC see a bottom? Let's take a look at gold across different assets. Perhaps comparing them can provide an answer.
People have a unique faith in Bitcoin. It is often referred to as digital gold, so let's show you a chart of gold!
The above chart is the daily chart of gold. Gold and silver are not inherently currency; currency is inherently gold and silver!
This round of bull market accelerated from November 2022. During the same period, gold was priced at $1600 per ounce, corresponding to a BTC price of $15,000 per coin. The overall increase in BTC far exceeds that of gold, with the two assets' growth charts being almost identical. However, BTC has seen an increase of nearly 7 times, while gold has increased by 2 times. Gold is an established capital, while BTC is a new aristocrat! Clearly, new things always receive more favor from the market!
As shown in the chart of gold, there has been almost no pullback. Even on January 20, when Trump took office, it continued to rise. In contrast, BTC has experienced over two months of pullbacks, while gold has not synchronized with any decline. As shown in the chart, gold has surged from 2960 to over 3300 since April 8, and this surge has been particularly rapid. In the short term, gold is in urgent need of a pullback, which is essentially a break!
In the short term, we need to wait for gold to complete its break before BTC may have a chance to see a short-term bottom!
Capital is the lifeblood of every market, whether it be stocks, bonds, currencies, or commodities, etc. Whether you believe it or not, the captain must tell you a fact: the entire market is interconnected!
Since gold has not yet started to decline, it is too early to talk about BTC hitting a bottom!
Since we have anticipated that it has not hit a bottom, then in the short term, do not participate in or attempt to bottom-fish! The bears can always make a stunning comeback, and the captain hopes everyone can always respect the market! Gold is unlikely to halve in a day, and BTC is not exempt; it has done this many times in the past!
We must at least wait for gold to complete its break before there is hope for a short-term bottom!
Therefore, I recommend that at this stage, do not attempt to bottom-fish at any price of BTC;** experts never bottom-fish!**
Today is Good Friday, and Monday is Easter. The holiday will see the European and American markets closed, with limited liquidity in the short-term market and relatively limited volatility! It is advisable to observe more in the short term. The overall trend is referenced in the analysis above!
The article conveys thoughts for a certain stage, and the captain hopes that those who read the article can gain knowledge, as teaching a person to fish is better than giving them fish!
For more short-term and real-time price alerts, please pay attention to real-time updates!
With a clear mindset, remain calm and composed!
The above analysis and predictions are solely the captain's personal probabilistic predictions and judgments about the market. Speculation carries risks; please invest cautiously!
2025.4.18 Captain of the Crypto Circle
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