比特币（BTC）在星期四（5月22日）再创新高，突破今年1月创下的纪录，成为市场关注焦点。 

Bitcoin (BTC) Hits New All-Time High On Thursday (May 22), Surpassing January’s Record And Grabbing Market Attention. 

尽管在美债收益率大幅上行、股市走低的影响下，比特币一度回吐涨幅，但整体走势依旧强劲。 根据CoinMarketCap数据，比特币盘中一度升至11.1861万美元，截至星期四下午3时，最新报11.0869万美元，日内涨幅约3.3%。 

Despite briefly pulling back due to a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a broader stock market decline, Bitcoin’s overall trend remained strong. According to CoinMarketCap data, BTC surged to an intraday high of $111,861 and was trading at $110,869 as of 3:00 p.m. Thursday, marking a daily gain of approximately 3.3%.

机构加持叠加宏观利好，比特币5月强势反弹

Institutional Support and Macro Tailwinds Drive Bitcoin’s Strong May Rally

Nexo加密交易平台联合创始人Antoni Trenchev指出，此轮上涨受多重宏观利好因素推动，包括美国通胀回落、美中贸易紧张局势缓解，以及评级机构穆迪下调美国主权信用评级等。  

Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto trading platform Nexo, noted that the recent surge in Bitcoin was driven by multiple macroeconomic tailwinds, including cooling U.S. inflation, easing U.S.-China trade tensions, and a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody’s.

他说：“我们仿佛进入了一个与4月初截然不同的‘平行宇宙’。当时全球宏观风险达到顶峰，比特币一度跌至7.4万美元。而现在，随着中美贸易协议有望达成，风险资产可能迎来一个为期三个月的利好窗口期。” 

He said, “It feels like we’ve entered a ‘parallel universe’ compared to early April. Back then, global macro risks peaked, and Bitcoin plunged to $74,000. Now, with a U.S.-China trade deal on the horizon, risk assets could enjoy a three-month window of favorable momentum.”

在美国总统特朗普对全球各个国家广泛挥舞起关税“大棒”之时，比特币在4月曾一度陷入低迷。但进入5月以来，该风险资产持续反弹，月内涨幅超18%。另外，SoSoValue数据，截至上周，跟踪比特币价格的交易型基金（ETF）累计资金净流入已超过400亿美元，5月仅出现过两天净流出。

In April, Bitcoin slumped as President Trump ramped up tariffs on multiple countries. But since the beginning of May, the asset has staged a robust comeback, rising more than 18% this month. According to SoSoValue, Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen net inflows of over $40 billion as of last week, with only two days of outflows in May.

与此同时，也有业内观点指出，此轮上涨并非单纯受宏观利好刺激，更深层的推动力来自机构资金的持续进场。

Meanwhile, some industry analysts argue that the rally is not just driven by macro catalysts but also by continued institutional accumulation.

Presto Research分析师Min Jung指出，此次上涨主要由微策略（Strategy）、Metaplanet和Twenty One Capital等公司的资金积累推动，表明本轮牛市更多由机构和长期资本而非散户投机驱动。

Min Jung, analyst at Presto Research, said that the rally was largely fueled by strategic accumulation from companies like MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and Twenty One Capital—suggesting that this bull cycle is being led more by institutions and long-term capital than retail speculation.

OKX美国区首席执行官Roshan Robert同样认为，比特币上涨是企业储备策略、交易所交易基金（ETF）流入激增、宏观经济不确定性以及有利监管信号等多重因素共同作用的结果。  

Roshan Robert, CEO of OKX U.S., echoed this view, pointing to a combination of corporate treasury strategies, surging ETF inflows, macroeconomic uncertainty, and supportive regulatory developments as key drivers behind Bitcoin’s rise.

除此之外，在本周一，美国参议院也已通过投票，推进建立美国首个稳定币监管框架《GENIUS法案》的立法进程。稳定币被认为是加密市场中的关键一环。特朗普曾表示，希望能在8月国会休会前将相关加密监管法案签署成为法律。再加上本月早些时候，知名加密交易平台Coinbase被正式纳入标普500指数，进一步彰显了加密货币行业逐步获得主流金融市场认可的趋势。 

In addition, the U.S. Senate this Monday passed a vote advancing the GENIUS Act, a legislative effort to create America’s first regulatory framework for stablecoins—widely seen as a cornerstone of the crypto market. Trump has said he hopes to sign crypto regulation into law before Congress recesses in August. Earlier this month, crypto exchange Coinbase was officially added to the S&P 500 index, underscoring the growing acceptance of the crypto industry within mainstream financial markets.

多家机构看多比特币：目标价上看20万美元甚至百万级别

Multiple Institutions Turn Bullish on Bitcoin: Price Targets Range from $200K to Over $1 Million

虽然年初至今，比特币价格曾有所下探，但行业看多声音不曾消退。在比特币冲破11万美元关卡后，“今年目标价20万美元”的呼声再次涌现。 

Although Bitcoin prices have experienced some pullbacks since the start of the year, bullish sentiment within the industry has remained strong. After BTC surged past the $110,000 mark, calls for a "$200K target by year-end" have once again gained traction.

Blockstream首席执行官Adam Back：本轮周期将达到50万美元到100万美元之间 

Blockstream首席执行官Adam Back近期在接受Web3媒体机构Decrypt时指出，考虑到当前大量机构资金已经入场，减半也已过去一年，目前比特币的价格依然偏低。他当时表示，如果比特币价格创出历史新高，接下来可能会迅速上涨至更高水平。

Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream: This Cycle Could Reach Between $500K and $1 MillionIn a recent interview with Web3 media outlet Decrypt, Blockstream CEO Adam Back stated that, given the significant institutional inflows and the fact that a year has passed since the halving, Bitcoin still appears undervalued. He noted that once Bitcoin sets a new all-time high, it could accelerate rapidly toward even greater levels.

Bernstein：本轮牛市目标价20万美元 

华尔街知名投资机构伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）预计，未来五年内企业将累计购入价值达3300亿美元的比特币。在特朗普赢得本次总统大选之前，伯恩斯坦分析师就曾精准预言称：“比特币这只‘魔瓶中的精灵’已经释放出来，趋势难以逆转。”

Bernstein: This Bull Market Has a Target of $200KWall Street investment firm Bernstein projects that enterprises will collectively acquire up to $330 billion worth of Bitcoin over the next five years. Even before Trump’s re-election, Bernstein analysts had accurately predicted that “the genie is out of the bottle,” and that Bitcoin’s trend is now irreversible.

摩根大通首席执行官Jamie Dimon：将允许其客户购买比特币  

摩根大通首席执行官Jamie Dimon历来是比特币怀疑论者，但他在本周一的摩根大通年度投资者日上虽然再度提及加密货币涉及的洗钱、所有权不清晰、以及“与性交易、恐怖主义相关的用途”，但也松口表示，该行将允许其客户购买比特币。 这一立场的转变被视为传统金融体系与加密市场融合的重要信号。

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan: Clients Will Be Allowed to Buy BitcoinLong a vocal skeptic of Bitcoin, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon reiterated concerns about crypto’s ties to money laundering, unclear ownership, and use in activities such as sex work and terrorism. However, during JPMorgan’s annual Investor Day on Monday, he acknowledged that the bank will now allow its clients to purchase Bitcoin. This shift is widely seen as a major signal of convergence between traditional finance and the crypto market.

摩根大通并不是唯一一个转变态度、迈向加密市场的华尔街传统金融巨头。自去年8月以来，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）已经允许旗下理财顾问向符合资格的客户推荐现货比特币ETF。 

JPMorgan isn’t the only Wall Street giant changing its stance. Since August last year, Morgan Stanley has allowed its financial advisors to recommend spot Bitcoin ETFs to qualified clients.

技术指标显示强劲动能，但回调风险依然存在

Technical Indicators Show Strong Momentum, but Pullback Risks Remain

从技术面上来看，比特币的相对强弱指数（RSI）和随机振荡指标目前处于超买区域，显示出强劲的看涨动能。但由于超买状态，交易者需保持谨慎，回调风险较高。此外，50日简单移动均线（SMA）即将上穿200日SMA，预示日线图上可能形成“黄金交叉”，一旦确认，将释放买入信号。

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator are currently in overbought territory, indicating strong bullish momentum. However, due to this overbought status, traders are advised to remain cautious as the risk of a pullback is elevated.Additionally, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is about to cross above the 200-day SMA, potentially forming a “golden cross” on the daily chart. If confirmed, this would signal a strong buying opportunity.

但如果比特币出现回调并收盘跌破10.5万美元，跌势可能会进一步扩大，回落至10万美元这一重要心理支撑位附近进行测试。

That said, if Bitcoin experiences a pullback and closes below $105,000, the downtrend could intensify, potentially testing the key psychological support level near $100,000.

总结

Conclusion

比特币的价格历史彰显了其坚韧生命力及对全球金融体系的颠覆性影响。从2009年默默无闻的起步，到屡创新高的辉煌表现，比特币彻底改变了我们对数字资产的认知。

Bitcoin’s price history underscores its resilience and disruptive influence on the global financial system. From its quiet inception in 2009 to its record-breaking highs, Bitcoin has fundamentally changed how we perceive digital assets.

对2025年至2030年的预测强调了比特币进一步扩展的潜力，巩固其作为金融生态系统中革命性力量的地位。尽管仍面临诸多挑战，但比特币的未来比以往任何时候都更加光明。

Looking ahead to 2025–2030, projections emphasize Bitcoin’s potential for continued expansion, reinforcing its role as a revolutionary force within the financial ecosystem. While challenges remain, the future of Bitcoin appears brighter than ever.

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原文: 《 比特币（BTC）突破11万美元：机构入场+政策落地，牛市逻辑正在重构？ 》

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