Good morning, crypto friends! I am Wang Yibo. July has entered the countdown, and the crypto market is still shrouded in many uncertainties, but the impressive performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum has injected vitality into the market. Next, let's sort out the current hot topics in the crypto circle and analyze the market trends of mainstream cryptocurrencies to provide references for your operations.
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The current focus of the crypto circle is undoubtedly on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The meeting on July 29-30 may bring significant volatility to the crypto market. According to the CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of maintaining interest rates in July is as high as 97.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.6%, which means that interest rates are unlikely to change this month. However, the situation in September is different, with a 35.9% probability of maintaining interest rates and a cumulative 62.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating relatively strong expectations for a rate cut. The direction of interest rate policy directly relates to market liquidity and investors' risk appetite. If a rate cut occurs later, market liquidity may increase, potentially leading to more funds flowing into the cryptocurrency market, driving up coin prices.
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In addition to the Federal Reserve meeting, the final game of Powell and the deadline for tariffs have also kept the market on edge. These uncertainties hang over the crypto market like the "Sword of Damocles," potentially affecting market trends at any time, so everyone needs to closely monitor relevant developments. The performance of traditional financial markets cannot be ignored either. On Monday, U.S. stock index futures opened higher, with Nasdaq futures up 0.5% and S&P 500 futures up 0.4%. There is a certain correlation between the flow of funds in traditional financial markets and the crypto market, and their trends will indirectly affect investor sentiment, which in turn impacts the crypto market.
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In this broader market context, Bitcoin's performance is particularly noteworthy. After consolidating around the 118,000 level for two weeks, Bitcoin broke through the 119,000 level in the early morning, reaching a high of 119,705 USD, demonstrating strong upward momentum. From a technical perspective, the four-hour chart shows a fluctuating upward trend. Although there has been some pullback from the bears, the strength is weak, and the current price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band, with bullish momentum continuing to expand. The one-hour chart has formed a series of bullish candles breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, and the MACD indicator's fast and slow lines have formed a golden cross, with the indicator values returning to the positive range, indicating a strong overall bullish atmosphere. However, the J value in the KDJ indicator has turned down in the overbought zone, and there is a long upper shadow above the bullish candlestick body, suggesting a risk of pullback in the short term. Therefore, on Monday, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips after a pullback, waiting for a suitable entry opportunity.
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Ethereum also performed well, reaching a new high of 3,873 USD in 2025. Its price has been oscillating in a pattern of stair-stepping upward and pulling back, with the return of bulls breaking the weak downward trend from yesterday, resulting in a reversal. The four-hour chart shows a strong trend, continuously breaking through the middle and upper Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is undergoing a pullback correction below the upper band. Despite the short-term correction, the bullish outlook remains unchanged, and once the price completes its oscillation and consolidation, bulls are expected to launch another attack, pushing the price higher.
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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the charts, don’t know when to enter the market, don’t know how to set stop losses, don’t understand take profits, randomly increase positions, get stuck while trying to catch the bottom, can’t hold onto profits, miss market opportunities… these are common problems for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth more than a thousand words; repeated failures are not as good as finding the right direction. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to moving steadily forward in the market with you.
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