Flowers bloom again, but youth does not return. In childhood, we always felt there were countless tomorrows. It is only when we grow up that we realize how fleeting youth is. We reminisce about the carefree days of our childhood!
The market has been relatively accommodating, providing us with a short entry position around 119500 as it rose, and then the subsequent pullback brought us to our ideal adjustment target below 118000, allowing us to successfully take profits on our short position. We also completed a short long position below 118000, which is currently showing a floating profit. Overall, the recent market conditions are still suitable for a range-bound trading strategy. Until a formal breakout occurs, we will maintain this approach.
Returning to today’s market, from the perspective of liquidity distribution, after yesterday's fluctuations, both bulls and bears have accumulated considerable liquidity. The short-term bearish liquidity clearing intensity is mainly concentrated around 119800, with further levels at yesterday's 121000. On the downside, the short-term bullish liquidity clearing intensity is primarily around 117000, with further bullish liquidity at 115600. Currently, it appears that the distribution of bearish liquidity above is relatively more significant. Additionally, after yesterday's pullback, both bulls and bears have seen a notable increase in high-multiplicity liquidity, making the short-term fluctuations more pronounced. Furthermore, the spot premium is in negative territory, indicating weak spot demand, but prices have not seen a significant drop, suggesting that spot supply is also exhausted. Therefore, the current market can be said to have gradually shifted to a futures-dominated market.
On the technical front, the daily chart shows a very clear range-bound consolidation structure, with candlesticks aligned in a straight line, maintaining a high position. Currently, the daily chart has limited reference value for the short term, but in conjunction with the overall market, if a breakout occurs upwards, it will lead to the indicators, which are already at high levels, facing a new pullback segment due to high divergence after the rise. In terms of technical indicators, MACD is in an adjustment cycle but has not shown a strong pullback. At least for now, the adjustments in the market are not thorough, remaining in a high-level range, which will affect the subsequent bullish breakout, as there will still be issues with insufficient volume.
On the four-hour chart, after completing a bottoming out early this morning, the market has rebounded again, forming two long shadow doji candlesticks. Without a bearish candlestick closing, we should maintain some skepticism about the strength of this bullish rebound. In terms of technical indicators, after a brief adjustment, MACD has entered a bullish cycle again with a bullish candlestick, while RSI is slightly elevated.
In terms of operations, the pullback has provided us with a short long entry position below 118000. For the upcoming market, based on our judgment, the most ideal short-term trend we expect is to first rise above 119800, followed by a slight pullback, and then another rise to clear the bearish liquidity above. Therefore, in terms of operations, if we reach above 119800, we can consider a short position. If the current position dips again, we should consider entering long again below 117000. Overall, we will continue to operate with a range-bound mindset.
Ethereum remains in a high-level range-bound trend with an upward trajectory. From the perspective of ETH's market, the bullish structure of Ethereum remains intact, especially during the pullback process, as it has not formed significantly lower lows. Therefore, objectively speaking, we can still expect Ethereum to reach the 4xxx area, and then through fluctuations or structural breakouts, we can consider when a significant pullback might occur after the transition to a larger range-bound trend.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
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