Written Before the Release of the U.S. Second Quarter GDP Data

Although there has not been any very important macro data in the past week, the upcoming week will see an explosion of macro data, starting with the U.S. second quarter GDP announced on Wednesday night. The previous value was -0.5%, the market expectation is 2.4%, while GDPNow's forecast is 2.9%.

This is slightly higher than market expectations, indicating a strong rebound in the U.S. economy in the second quarter from the technical contraction or extremely low growth of the previous quarter. Both nominal growth and seasonally adjusted annualized growth have significantly improved. This may suggest a clear recovery of economic momentum, with a warming in both business and consumer spending.

The main reason is the increase in net exports, which offset the downturn in U.S. private domestic investment growth. In other words, the U.S. economy is likely to perform better than market expectations, primarily due to the increase in U.S. exports during the tariff suspension period compared to the first quarter, while the decline in the first quarter was also due to tariff expectations.

However, this may not be good news for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, as the strength of the U.S. economy is evident. The newly imposed tariffs will inevitably impact inflation, and the economic upturn also gives the Federal Reserve more confidence to observe for a longer period.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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