Analysts at investment firm Compass Point reiterated a “neutral” rating for Marathon Digital on Wednesday, arguing that the firm’s focus on preparing for Bitcoin’s next halving relies on unproven strategies that may be hard for investors to immediately assess.
On Tuesday, the Miami-based firm disclosed $238 million in second quarter revenue, a 64% jump from a year prior. Net income rose 505% to a record $808 million, partly due to a $1.2 billion gain in the fair value of Marathon’s Bitcoin holdings.
Compass Point analysts noted that most Bitcoin miners are focused on opportunities in high-performance computing, prioritizing the space as a form of revenue diversification, as Bitcoin’s rising hashrate eats away at miners’ profitability.
Some miners have used their existing infrastructure to lease space to power-hungry companies. But Marathon’s approach, which involves co-developing AI-specific platforms with certain energy companies, is “inflating [operating and research and development costs] while masking underlying profitability,” the analysts argued.
Marathon shares rose 3% on Wednesday to $17.11, according to Yahoo Finance. The company’s stock price is up 2% year-to-date, and analysts at Compass have penciled in a price target of $18.
The firm, which operates 15 mining sites across four countries, owns nearly 50,000 Bitcoin worth $5.9 billion, based on current prices. Marathon has upside as a “quasi-BTC treasury company,” but without HPC, slowing momentum could pressure the stock, the analysts said.
In a shareholder letter, , Marathon said it has secured partnerships with TAE Power Solutions and LG-backed PADO AI. These companies specialize in high-efficiency energy systems and can help build “field-deployable” infrastructure for AI, Marathon said.Marathon said that pursuing enterprise-level partnerships that can monetize “otherwise underutilized or stranded electrons” is among the firm’s top priorities, but efforts to diversify revenues by tapping international markets remain its North Star.
“Everyone else is focused on HPC, and Marathon is kind of in its own world,” Compass analyst Ed Engel told Decrypt. “It’s different from what others are doing.”
Bitcoin’s next halving in 2028 will reduce the per-block reward that miners earn from validating transactions to 1.56 BTC from 3.125 BTC. The pre-programmed event, which took place last year, represented an identity crisis for some Bitcoin miners.
Marathon is aiming to generate more than 50% of its revenue outside =the U.S., and that will hopefully involve “structured joint ventures with sovereign power entities,” Marathon said.
“We believe large pockets of underutilized energy around the world, particularly in regions with excess renewable or stranded capacity, present a unique opportunity to scale our operations in a capital efficient manner,” it added.
Although U.S. President Donald Trump has called for more Bitcoin mining on American soil, some conservatives abroad are warming up to the industry.
In March, Marine Le Pen, a far-right figurehead in France, vouched support for using surplus electricity generated by nuclear facilities across the region to mine Bitcoin, per Le Monde.
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