Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.7 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.2%, which is $2.26 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $266.9 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.65%, of which USDT accounts for 61.67%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number have risen while most have fallen, including: TON with a 7-day increase of 13.64%, ZORA with a 7-day increase of 40.39%, ZBCN with a 7-day increase of 26.02%, USELESS with a 7-day decrease of 31.66%, and FARTCOIN with a 7-day decrease of 31.79%.
This week, there was a net outflow of $642.9 million from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs; while there was a net inflow of $155 million into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs.
Market Forecast (August 4 - August 8) :
This week, there was a slight increase in the issuance of stablecoins, with continued net inflows into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs, but significant net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, and altcoins experienced some corrections. The RSI index is at 36, indicating weakness. The Fear and Greed Index is at 54 (lower than last week).
On August 1, U.S. non-farm payroll data was disappointing, with July job numbers far below expectations, raising the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 77.7%, with expectations for two cuts within the year, but caution is advised regarding market correction risks in August.
BTC: If it falls below $115,000, it may test the $112,000 support; if it breaks above $120,000, then look for $125,000.
ETH: Support at $3,500, with an upward target of $4,000.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On July 29, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase is in advanced talks to acquire the Indian crypto trading platform CoinDCX;
On July 31, according to strategicethreserve data, Bitmine, Sharplink Gaming, and The Ether Machine each hold more ETH than the Ethereum Foundation;
On July 31, Stable completed a $28 million seed round financing, led jointly by Bitfinex and Hack VC;
On August 1, Coinbase plans to add tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and early token sales to create a "one-stop trading platform";
On August 1, Reuters reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched Project Crypto, aimed at modernizing securities regulations and enabling on-chain capabilities in U.S. financial markets;
Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for 20 consecutive days, totaling $5.4 billion, setting a record;
The SEC approved the ETF physical redemption mechanism, allowing BTC/ETH to be directly exchanged for ETF shares;
Trump's tariff policy took effect on August 1, with the market focusing on capital flows in emerging markets.
Macroeconomics
On July 31, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting of inaction, in line with market expectations;
On July 31, the Federal Reserve held rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, maintaining the benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations;
On August 1, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that May's non-farm payrolls were revised down from 144,000 to 19,000; June's non-farm payrolls were revised down from 147,000 to 14,000;
On August 1, the U.S. adjusted non-farm employment for July was 73,000, with expectations of 110,000.
ETF
According to statistics, from July 28 to August 1, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $642.9 million; as of August 1, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.665 billion, currently holding $20.503 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $83.781 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $147.994 billion.
The net inflow into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $155 million.
Envisioning the Future
Upcoming Events
The Vietnam Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence Summit CONVICTION 2025 will be held from August 9 to 10, 2025, in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam;
Coinfest Asia 2025 will take place from August 21 to 22 in Bali, Indonesia;
WebX Asia 2025 will be held from August 25 to 26, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan;
Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held from August 28 to 29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.
Important Events
On August 7 at 19:00, the UK will announce its central bank interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report;
On August 7 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2 (in ten thousand);
On August 8 at 20:30, Canada will announce July employment numbers (in ten thousand);
Brazilian legislators are preparing to debate a new cryptocurrency tax proposal put forward by President Lula, which would impose a fixed fee of 17.5% on all transactions, eliminating the income tax exemption for small trading businesses compared to the old tax system, and targeting decentralized finance activities through a temporary measure that took effect in June. The deadline for this decision is October 8; if the measure is not approved by this date, it will expire.
Token Unlocks
IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 8.63 million tokens on August 5, valued at approximately $1.56 million, accounting for 0.22% of the circulating supply;
EIGEN (EigenLayer) will unlock 1.29 million tokens on August 6, valued at approximately $1.43 million, accounting for 0.41% of the circulating supply;
IMX (Immutable) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on August 8, valued at approximately $12.31 million, accounting for 1.3% of the circulating supply;
MOVE (Movement) will unlock 50 million tokens on August 9, valued at approximately $6.51 million, accounting for 1.92% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also engage with you live, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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