Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Recently, how should we view the market? I feel that macro data has become a supporting role, while the main act is the battle between the White House and the Federal Reserve. The market is no longer focused on inflation or employment; it’s all about how the White House and the Federal Reserve perform their duet.

Which way do you think the market will go? I see arguments on both sides, but the key is that the rhythm is no longer dictated by data but by the timing of speculative expectations.

Moreover, the current divergence is quite large. On one side, there are die-hard bulls who say a rate cut in September is a done deal, and they are already starting to create momentum to push prices up, hoping to turn rate cut expectations into a big wave.

On the other side, there are cautious bears who believe that before any rate cut, there must first be a drop to wash out floating positions, and then they will make one last push to the top after the rate cut is confirmed, ending the bull market.

How should I choose? Personally, I definitely lean towards the first option. But regardless of which script you believe in, you cannot go against the current now. Look at the current position; it’s not dropping, just holding on. If it does drop a bit, it immediately rebounds, holding firm.

What do you want to do at this time if you’re not buying low? Wait until it really goes up to chase? By then, you’ll be passive and miss out on the gains. You deserve to miss out every day. The market is not something you wait for; it’s built step by step on support.

So, will there be a pullback? Definitely. But it will be a gradual decline, not a sudden drop of several thousand points to scare you. Moreover, technically speaking, a real major pullback accumulates from smaller levels; don’t just jump to conclusions about a crash.

Look at the daily and weekly charts; they are still holding up, with support levels not broken one by one, and the rebounds are decisive. So why not take advantage of every pullback to buy low instead of waiting for others to lift you up to chase high? Many have ended up playing that way.

Currently, shorting is more about managing positions and hedging risks rather than being the main theme. Look at Bitcoin; it’s currently hovering around 115.8K, but this sudden surge in premium is clearly suspicious to anyone with a discerning eye.

Many bears think they can push through with small stop losses at resistance levels, but what if this wave is just to bait them? To be honest, if Bitcoin fakes a breakout above 115.8K and then drops immediately, causing the premium to plummet, then shorting could be considered, at least the risk-reward ratio would be there.

But right now, if the premium holds steady and the price really breaks above, then sorry, the bears will continue to take hits. I’d rather go with the trend than be a cannon fodder against the current.

Back to the market, structurally speaking, Bitcoin is still at the junction of the 1-2 day line adjustment cycle. The last round of the 1-day line adjustment has completed, and now it’s at most a 12-hour level rebound; last night’s surge was a technical golden cross effect at this level.

In plain terms, this is not a major top signal; don’t scare yourself. A major pullback doesn’t just happen; it also depends on whether there’s volume to follow and whether there’s a break in capital flow. So there’s no need to be too extreme; the market needs to be observed as it moves, following the rhythm.

If you’re sitting in cash waiting for a pullback and end up with no opportunities for a whole week, aren’t you locking yourself out? There are short-term opportunities every day; it’s just that you’re too afraid to act.

Tonight at 8:30 PM, there’s also the U.S. unemployment claims data, a typical minor data point that won’t change the main tone. Buying low remains the mainstay. The range of 3626-3646 for Ethereum is a small resistance; if U.S. stocks open high tonight, this range might directly break through to 3660-3688.

Additionally, for those who keep shouting about structural damage, Ethereum hasn’t broken down, okay? At most, it’s just a divergence repair; under this structure, the probability of a second test of the top is very high. Where’s the bearish trend coming from?

Don’t just follow a few KOLs blindly; who are these people looking bearish now? They’re all mixed troops, shouting about crashes while not even daring to open short positions, living off their words.

Don’t worry about the market being short-lived; real reversals come when no one is bullish. There’s plenty of capital outside; as long as they haven’t entered, the market can go far. A real crash only happens when everyone is bullish; right now, sentiment is still scattered, so the market won’t end.

Just wait; when the rate cut in September is truly confirmed, a bunch of the currently stubborn bears will likely retaliate by shorting, and then they’ll get blown out and exit the market. That would be satisfying.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 115700

First Resistance Level: 115000

Support Level Reference:

Second Support Level: 114000

First Support Level: 113200

Currently, 114K is a key support level. If it breaks, the short-term upward structure will be damaged. Until there is an effective breakthrough above 115.7K, the overall trend remains an adjustment structure. If there is an effective volume breakout above 115.7K, the market will enter a new round of upward movement.

The first resistance at 115K is an important psychological barrier. If it can break through and stabilize, it is expected to test the 115.7K resistance again. The second resistance at 115.7K is the key point for whether the current market can strengthen, and it is also the position of the 200-day moving average.

The first support at 114K is a strong pressure level that has been tested repeatedly and has now turned into support. If 114K can hold, the short-term rebound expectation can continue. The second support at 113.2K is the next key support area if 114K is lost.

If a large bearish candle directly breaks through 114K, the short-term trend will lean bearish. The current market is likely to attempt to retest 115K, and as long as 114K holds, opportunities for buying low can still be considered.

From the current trend, the price is coming down from a high position, and choosing to short at this level is not very cost-effective. When at a short-term low, technical rebounds are more likely to occur, so it’s more suitable to consider placing long positions during pullbacks to support.

8.7 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the range of 103200-104000, Target: 115000-115700

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just make hasty conclusions after a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they show long positions, tomorrow they summarize shorts, making it seem like they “catch every top and bottom,” but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger has a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and stands up to scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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