Macro News:

1. Federal Reserve's Daly pointed out that the current job market is gradually cooling, and the impact of tariffs is more short-term; it is expected that the Fed will soon initiate interest rate cuts. Collins also mentioned that long-term investments face many uncertainties, and policy-making needs to comprehensively assess risk levels based on data.

2. CME's "FedWatch" data shows that the market expects the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 93.6%.

3. Trump stated that he may impose tariffs on certain countries and levy tariffs of up to 100% on chip products, but companies that build factories in the U.S. will be eligible for exemption policies.

4. Ethereum's on-chain transaction volume reached 1.87 million, approaching the 1.96 million peak set in January 2024, indicating a rebound in network activity. However, caution is needed for the "divergence risk" where prices do not rise in sync, and there is a need to guard against a potential drop after a false rally.

Technical Analysis:
Regarding BTC:
Currently, Bitcoin is in an adjustment period after breaking below the previous high-level range, with significant resistance at the 116K level, which was previously a support area and has now turned into resistance. The support below is around 110K, which is the starting point of the rise in early July. Although there has been a short-term rebound due to favorable policies, the repeated highs and subsequent declines over the past three days indicate significant selling pressure at the 115.5 level, and the lack of volume suggests a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors. Without new funds or sudden positive news, the trend is likely to remain weak and volatile.
On the 4-hour chart, there was a brief spike to 115.5 during the U.S. trading session before retreating, forming a three consecutive bearish candle structure. The short-term platform support is around 114K, and there is a slight rebound currently. In terms of operations, focus on short opportunities in the 114.8-115.8 range, with support seen in the 113.5-112.5 range.

Regarding ETH:
Currently, Ethereum is oscillating at a high level between 3600-3700, having entered the second phase of box consolidation, and is expected to choose a direction by this Friday. After reaching a high of 3941, the price formed a top pattern and retreated to around 3720, with a clear convergence in structure. In the past few days, there has been an increase in volume without a price rise, indicating a divergence in volume and price, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors. If the price breaks below the 3560 support level, it may trigger a rapid adjustment. Although ETH is currently the main force of the rebound, the continuation of momentum is insufficient, and technically it still needs to build strength. If BTC weakens, the likelihood of ETH failing to hold above 3560 is very high.
On the 4-hour chart, ETH is under pressure from the double top at 3700, with a slight short-term pullback. If it breaks below 3650, it can continue to look down towards 3560. The intraday strategy suggests considering short positions in the 3680-3720 range, with support focused on 3610-3570.

Altcoins:
Currently, altcoins have not yet entered a tradable window, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious stance. During this phase, I would like to share some practical experience: after experiencing last year's altcoin market, there is a strong differentiation in the altcoin market, with funds only favoring narratives that are clear and logically sound. The current market hotspots are concentrated in AI, RWA, L2, and MEME segments. It is essential to remember: altcoins are speculative, not long-term holding assets. Operations should primarily focus on short-term thinking, and an exit point should be established upon entry; otherwise, the risks far outweigh the opportunities.
In terms of contracts, we offer a "rebate + free teaching" service, providing hands-on training on position control and profit-taking methods, with rebate rates up to 40%. The first phase is limited to 50 traders, and everyone is welcome to join for exclusive guidance.

Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and operations should be conducted with caution. This article is for experience sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.

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