Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, became the focus of heightened market chatter this week over whether it will move to file for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). Nate Geraci, president of registered investment advisor Novadius Wealth Management, fueled the speculation by expressing confidence that such a filing will definitely happen.

Following the end of the SEC v Ripple lawsuit, Geraci shared on social media platform X: “I think Blackrock was waiting to see this before filing for Ishares XRP ETF… I’ll own it if I’m wrong. IMO, makes zero sense for them to ignore crypto assets beyond BTC & ETH. Otherwise, they’re basically saying BTC & ETH are only ones that will ever have value. Bold.”

A spokesperson for Blackrock addressed the speculation directly, telling The Block on Friday:

At this time, Blackrock does not have any plans to file an XRP or SOL ETF.

Following the asset management firm’s clarification, Geraci posted on X: “Blackrock immediately calls me out… Says no plans at this time to launch spot XRP (or SOL) ETF. IMO, this will be looked back on as a mistake. We shall see.” However, some still believe that Blackrock will eventually pursue such a product. Lawyer Bill Morgan pointed out: “They were against bitcoin for years until then they suddenly were not.”

Against this backdrop, market observers initially viewed Blackrock as a potential first mover in launching an institutional investment product for XRP. While its statement tempered some of the immediate hype, supporters argue conditions for such a product are improving. Prediction market platform Polymarket shows strong confidence in a spot XRP ETF approval, with odds recently fluctuating but reaching as high as 98%, driven by broader momentum in crypto ETF approvals.

Momentum for XRP has been bolstered by Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) withdrawing their appeals in their prolonged legal dispute over XRP, a move some see as a step toward regulatory clarity. Corporate adoption trends have also strengthened the outlook, with more firms integrating XRP into treasury strategies.

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