Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Waking up, this really feels like the taste of a bull market! Once the CPI was released, the market directly told you the turning point has arrived. But thinking carefully, the macro data from the U.S. is no longer the kind that can turn things upside down like before.

Good data? Everyone is smiling from ear to ear. Bad data? Trump directly goes to Powell to settle accounts, recovering losses in no time. But now the biggest highlight is not the data, but the drama before September.

If Powell speaks, will he side with Trump or stand firm? I’ve mentioned before that the U.S. market is currently playing a game of back-and-forth between Trump and the Federal Reserve, making macro data less important.

Let’s get back to the market. After the CPI stabilized last night, market sentiment gradually calmed down, and the panic from the previous non-farm payrolls was all but diluted. At this time, the counterfeit dog traders like to stir things up, pulling a certain coin up by 20% or 30% to test if there are any retail investors willing to jump in.

If many people follow, it will take off directly. If no one is there to catch the fall, the dog traders are also afraid of losses, so they throw away their chips and wait for the next wave. But as the interest rate cut approaches, the cost of abandoning chips is also extremely high, so you know…

The first support for Bitcoin at 119.3K was broken without any volume. The second at 119.1K barely held. Now the market only recognizes Ethereum, and Bitcoin is temporarily ignored. It rises slowly and falls quickly, resembling Ethereum's tough times six months ago.

That said, although Bitcoin is weak, a skinny camel is still bigger than a horse. If it breaks through 120.5K, as long as it retraces without breaking, or breaks out with volume, it can reach new highs. However, the money to pull Bitcoin is enough to directly raise Ethereum to 5000, so it depends on which horse the institutions want to feed.

Over the weekend, I saw a bunch of people loudly bearish on Ethereum, with targets of 4100, 4066, and 3900. I thought to myself, if these people don’t run quickly, they’ll be in trouble in a couple of days. The 300 points from 4100-4400 is not the same difficulty as the 300 points from 3100-3400.

The former took three days, with dog traders luring shorts at 4330-4160. When a bunch of people chased shorts below 4200, they directly netted. The price reached 4440, and 4300 became a stepping stone, with 4200 as weak support and 4160 as the bulls' defense line.

The 1000-point range from 4-5K has already been half completed, and the next step is to push through the remaining 500 points. There will be a harsh retracement at 4800-5100, scaring the bulls and making the bears howl. But remember, there are no real trapped positions at 4800, only fear in human nature. Once it breaks through, it will be clear skies ahead.

Looking back since March 2024, the only main line in the Bitcoin circle has been Wall Street. First Bitcoin, now it’s Ethereum’s turn. Bitcoin is the leader, having retraced from 73.7K to now. This market trend has nothing to do with the Bitcoin circle itself; it’s all about ETFs and interest rate cuts and other macro logic.

Ethereum is now following the old path of Bitcoin, washing out positions and reversing in one go. The difference is that Bitcoin was still in a tightening cycle while pulling and absorbing positions, whereas Ethereum has already washed out positions and is light on its feet, just in time to enter a loosening cycle. So, in the medium term, Ethereum is in the fifth segment of the second wave of rises, or the early stage of the third wave, with a major rise waiting after the pullback!

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 120300

First Resistance Level: 119850

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 119000

First Support Level: 118300

Bitcoin has tried to break through 120K twice but was pushed down to catch its breath. But don’t rush to be bearish; it is still steadily moving within an upward channel, and the trend is not broken. Intraday, I still see a rebound.

The price is firmly holding at the short-term key defense line of 118.3K~119K. As long as this line is not broken, the expectation for a rebound remains. Pay attention to the trend line near 119K and the 20-day moving average. If it continues to hold, the bulls still have a chance.

If 119K breaks again, then caution is needed, as it may drop down to the previous dense support area. However, if it can hard break through the 119.8K barrier, 120K will basically be within reach. If it pushes up again, it will clean out the trapped positions above, leading to a direct short-term rise.

And 119.8K is indeed quite strong; it must be bitten down to qualify for a challenge at 120K. If it can stabilize above 119.8K, then we’ll see if it can directly explode when breaking through 120K. If the RSI is neutral or oversold, the probability of a breakout is even greater. 120.3K is the short-term high point from yesterday's failed pullback; to get past it, it must come with volume, otherwise, it will hit a wall.

119K is the hard support formed yesterday; if it doesn’t break, we continue to look bullish. The area of 118.6K~119K is the current entry zone, and the lower trend line and 20-day moving average can be monitored for support strength.

If it really drops to 118.3K, the bullish momentum will weaken. The maximum pullback I can accept is 118.5K; as long as it holds, I still look forward to a second push at 120K.

8.13 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Accumulate in batches in the 118300-119000 range. Target: 119850-120300

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). If you want to learn more about real-time investment strategies, position recovery, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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