On August 12, Ethereum broke through $4,700, reaching a four-year high. Last week, @CryptoHayes took profits early and bought back Ethereum on August 9; Bitcoin also hit a new high, pushing the total cryptocurrency market cap to $4.2 trillion, igniting market sentiment.

The traditional market is equally vibrant. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both set new historical records, with global liquidity accelerating towards risk assets; the dollar index (DXY) fell below 98, further opening the floodgates for capital to flow into the stock and crypto markets. This macro environment not only solidifies the upward trend but also boosts investor confidence in high-risk assets.

Meanwhile, the market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the meeting on September 17, with a probability close to 100%, lowering the benchmark rate to the range of 4.00%-4.25%. This expectation provides additional fuel for markets that rely on high liquidity—especially cryptocurrencies. Now, the wealth effect of altcoin season has become a hot topic in the market, with the key question being when it will fully kick off.

Next, Rhythm BlockBeats has compiled traders' views on the upcoming market situation to provide some directional references for trading this week.

@b66ny

BTC.D has recently shown a clear downward trend, retreating from previous highs to about 57.7%. Combined with the trend of ETH.D, I believe this is a typical signal of capital rotation: market funds are starting to withdraw from relatively stable assets and are instead pursuing higher risk and higher potential return targets. Historically, a sustained decline in BTC.D has often been one of the necessary conditions for the start of altcoin season.

ETH.D not only represents the strength of Ethereum itself but is also often seen as the leader of the entire altcoin market. Currently, ETH.D is performing strongly, with its dominance rising back to 14.0%, and accompanied by a rapid increase in ETH prices, ETH/BTC has risen over 4% in 24 hours, indicating a clear trend of funds flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum.

This trend is a classic script of capital rotation: in the first phase, BTC stagnates or even declines, and funds begin to flow into ETH; the rise of ETH not only boosts market confidence but also creates conditions for more liquidity to enter the altcoin market.

Next, it is worth paying attention to OTHERS.D (the market cap share of small and medium-sized altcoins excluding major coins like BTC and ETH). Currently, OTHERS.D is still in a long-term bottom consolidation and has not shown explosive growth like ETH.D, which means that capital heat is still concentrated on a few major assets like ETH. Although SOL has also seen a significant rise today, the signs of capital rotation are becoming clearer, but it has not yet fully spread to the high-risk, small-cap speculative sectors.

Overall, looking at the three major indicators, the market is likely in the early stages of rotation:

Already occurred: BTC.D down, capital overflow.

Currently occurring: ETH.D rising, capital concentrated in ETH.

Not yet occurred: OTHERS.D rising, capital spreading to small-cap altcoins.

@im_BrokeDoomer

From the comparison of altcoins and Bitcoin market cap since 2017, we are currently at a key support position at the lower edge of the channel. This position has historically been a sensitive area for capital entry, often accompanied by a warming market sentiment and accelerated rotation. If this support is confirmed, the altcoin sector is expected to see a collective explosion, marking the official start of a new round of altcoin season.

The typical process for the start of altcoin season is as follows: Bitcoin (BTC) starts the rally → Ethereum (ETH) follows with an increase → BTC powers up again → ETH breaks historical highs (ATH) → Large-cap altcoins rise → BTC sets new highs → ETH and large-cap altcoins reach new highs together → Mid-cap altcoins take off → Small-cap altcoins explode.

Currently, we are in the third phase, with ETH and large-cap altcoins reaching new highs, and we can expect the subsequent explosion of other altcoins.

@ZssBecker

In the last bull market of 2020, most altcoin narratives did not explode at the beginning but waited until ETH's price broke historical highs and increased threefold before fully launching. At that time, capital flooded into new narratives—such as the gaming sector—driving related tokens to soar by 10, 20, or even 50 times, with Sandbox even surging 80 times, and even the most hollow and marginal gaming projects could achieve dozens of times increases. This phenomenon did not truly occur until the later stages of the bull market, but once it started, it became a concentrated explosion of wealth effect.

I believe this scene will replay in the current market. We are still in the first phase of altcoin season—dominated by BTC and ETH. We need to wait for ETH to break above $5,000 and for mainstream altcoins to achieve 2-3 times increases before market funds will frantically seek the next narrative. The most likely candidates to take over will be AI, RWA, and gaming, as these three areas have been efficiently penetrated and profited by the crypto industry in reality, possessing strong narratives and high potential returns.

The launch of the previous gaming narrative turned countless people’s thousands of dollars into millions of dollars in assets; this time, the scale of market funds is larger, and the risk appetite is higher. Once it starts, the driving force of capital will only be more intense. For investors, the key is not to anxiously chase now but to patiently wait and position in advance. When the signal for narrative switching appears, the climax of altcoin season will truly arrive.

@lanhubiji

Understanding market structure will make it clear that altcoin season will definitely come, but the form may be completely different from the past two rounds. Previously, the number of altcoins was limited, and capital was relatively concentrated, with almost all major sectors experiencing a general rise; now, there are already over a million coins on the market, and competition is extremely dispersed, making it impossible for capital to cover all targets.

This means that the current market is more likely to see a "localized altcoin season"—capital will concentrate on a few sectors or individual tokens with strong narratives, strong communities, and strong liquidity, creating localized frenzies, while most coins will still be ignored by the market. For investors, opportunities still exist, but the probability of selecting the right targets is much lower than in the past, and currently, I am more optimistic about the AI sector.

@joao_wedson

The real altcoin season is still far from starting. The flow path of smart capital is usually: first from BTC to ETH, then into major large-cap coins, and finally spreading to mid and small-cap tokens. The current market has just entered the first half, and the real "altcoin frenzy" is still on the way, possibly continuing until November. In other words, the rise we see now is just the "appetizer," and the real "main course" has yet to be served.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。