Today, there hasn't been much change in the market's information landscape. The market's shift began with the opening of the U.S. stock market. Many viewpoints suggest that the expectation of a rate cut in September may reflect concerns about a downturn in the U.S. economy, leading the market to preemptively enter a trading recession. Of course, the Jackson Hole annual meeting is also a contributing factor.

There are worries that Powell will stand firm against Trump, or that Powell believes the U.S. economy is in danger. After all, in past Federal Reserve meetings, Powell has consistently mentioned that there are indeed signs of a potential downturn in the U.S. economy, but we are still some distance from a recession. The Fed's decision not to cut rates early is also based on the belief that the economy remains resilient.

Looking at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate has slightly decreased compared to yesterday, but the price continues to decline, and there is a heightened sense of panic. Yesterday, only investors with a cost basis above $100,000 were trading a bit more, but now even those with a cost basis around $95,000 are starting to participate in trading.

Regarding expectations for the bottom, since the rise from early July to now, the lowest drop has been around $112,000. The last drop was triggered by non-farm employment data, which caused investors to worry about a potential economic recession in the U.S., similar to the current situation. Therefore, if it is the same reason, I predict that the $112,000 mark will still show some resilience before the Jackson Hole annual meeting.

Of course, I may not be right, but I will hold onto my long positions for now. Last time, I held my positions for a week; this time, I don't know how long I will have to hold on.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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