Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Ethan
In the past two days, the cryptocurrency market has once again pulled back, with major coins breaking through key support levels, led by ETH.
According to OKX market data, BTC fell to a low of $112,500, currently reported at $113,580, with a maximum drop of over 3% within 24 hours; ETH's decline was even more severe, hitting a daily low of $4,062, with a maximum drop of 5%, currently reported at $4,180; over the past 48 hours, ETH has accumulated a pullback of over 8%, nearly erasing all gains from last week.
In terms of other assets, SOL briefly fell below the $176 mark, currently reported at $180.51; high Beta altcoins like DOGE, PEPE, and TRUMP also pulled back, with declines concentrated in the 7% – 10% range.
In terms of sectors, according to SoSoValue data, as of August 20, the PayFi sector, which performed relatively well yesterday, fell by 5.65% today, with XRP down 5.52% and TEL down 7.17%; the Layer 1 sector fell by 3.35%, with Cardano (ADA) seeing a drop of up to 8.83%; the Layer 2 sector fell by 3.75%, while Mantle (MNT) rose against the trend by 5.51%; the DeFi sector fell by 4.25%, with Lido DAO (LDO) slightly up by 1.01%; the Meme sector overall fell by 5.25%, with MemeCore (M) rising against the trend by 6.91%.
In the derivatives market, according to Coinglass data, the total liquidation amount across the network in the past 24 hours reached $452 million, with long positions liquidated at $373 million. The liquidation amount for BTC was about $102 million, while ETH's liquidation reached $175 million, making it the current "disaster zone" for liquidations.
Lookonchain monitoring shows that in just the past 12 hours, multiple whale addresses have transferred over 34,000 ETH to centralized exchanges, with a total value of about $140 million, intensifying market panic due to the concentration of whale sell-offs.
There has also been no significant support on the funding side. According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (August 19), the net outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs reached $197 million, the second highest in history. Among them, BlackRock and Fidelity's two ETF products recorded outflows of over $80 million each.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have tested key support levels for two consecutive days, with market sentiment turning sharply pessimistic, as capital outflows, whale sell-offs, and ETF net outflows resonate. In the face of increasing investor divergence, is the market undergoing a phase adjustment or is it a prelude to a deeper pullback?
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the latest views from on-chain data platforms, institutional research, and traders for readers' reference.
Bitcoin's Downtrend Stabilization, How Will Ethereum Perform in the Future?
Santiment: Retail Sentiment Turns Extremely Bearish, May Signal Market Reversal
On-chain data platform Santiment indicates that after BTC fell below $113,000, retail traders' sentiment has sharply turned pessimistic in the past 24 hours, reaching the lowest level since the sell-off triggered by geopolitical conflicts on June 22.
Historical experience shows that extremely pessimistic sentiment is often one of the important signals for potential rebounds, which may provide long-term investors with layout opportunities.
Although ETH is leading the decline, the main focus of the cryptocurrency market remains on Bitcoin. As BTC fell below $113,000, institutions also began to provide their expectations.
Delphi Digital: TGA Replenishment Expected to Withdraw $500 to $600 Billion in Market Liquidity
Delphi Digital stated that the U.S. Treasury will initiate replenishment of the Treasury General Account (TGA) in the coming weeks, planning to withdraw about $500 to $600 billion in liquidity from the market over the next two months. Unlike previous rounds, this replenishment lacks a buffer: the Federal Reserve is still draining liquidity through quantitative tightening (QT), reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) are nearly exhausted, and banks are constrained by capital rules and book losses, while overseas buying from countries like Japan and China has also significantly declined. In other words, this fundraising will directly extract funds from market liquidity.
This change is particularly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market. Historical data shows that during the liquidity easing in 2021, the supply of stablecoins still expanded with the TGA rebound; however, in 2023, the supply of stablecoins has shrunk by over $5 billion, causing the cryptocurrency market to stagnate. The liquidity environment in 2025 is expected to be even tighter, and if the supply of stablecoins contracts again, high Beta assets like ETH may face larger declines relative to BTC, unless offset by ETF or institutional capital inflows.
Greeks.Live: BTC Trend Shows Divergence, Focus on $112,000–$130,000 Range
Options analysis platform Greeks.Live pointed out in a community briefing that there is a clear divergence in the market regarding BTC's trend: some traders believe the short-term outlook is weak and there is still room for further declines; others believe that the liquidation of long positions is nearing its end and a rebound is about to start.
From a technical perspective, BTC is still operating within a range, with key observation levels at $112,000 to $130,000. In terms of options strategy, traders are generally employing a "double sell" strategy in the $112,000–$120,000 range, waiting for market breakout signals.
BMO Senior Strategist: Powell May "Douse" Market Optimism for September Rate Cuts
Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, stated that although the current market bets on an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with even 325,000 options betting on a 50 basis point cut, the real risk lies in Powell's speech this Friday potentially "dousing cold water" on the market's expectations for aggressive easing.
If the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, it could trigger broader volatility in risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market, which may continue to face pressure.
Arthur Hayes: "Cannot Judge" Powell's Speech, Choosing to Avoid the Spotlight
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated that he "cannot judge how the market will react" to the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, and therefore chooses to "enjoy the late summer" and refrain from excessive predictions.
This statement, while seemingly relaxed, also reflects the current market's high uncertainty regarding macro variables and the divergence in investor expectations.
Tom Lee: Speech May Be "Dovishly Interpreted," U.S. Stocks and Crypto Markets Expected to Recover
Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine's board, stated that most institutional investors expect Powell to maintain a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, but since the market has already set this as a precondition, the speech may instead be "dovishly interpreted," potentially driving a phase rebound in U.S. stocks and risk assets after the speech concludes.
For BTC, this means there may be a window for technical recovery after a short-term decline.
Bernstein: Bull Market May Extend to 2027, Bitcoin Target Set at $200,000
Bernstein analysts released a report stating that the current cycle of the cryptocurrency bull market is supported by U.S. policy and increased institutional participation, and is expected to extend to 2027.
Among them, the price target for Bitcoin over the next year has been raised to the $150,000–$200,000 range, becoming an important pricing reference for medium to long-term investors.
Summary: Short-Term Pressure Unresolved, Rebound Signals Await Confirmation
The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has disturbed market sentiment, and cryptocurrency assets have experienced concentrated pullbacks under the influence of capital outflows and whale sell-offs. ETH fell below $4,100, BTC tested $113,000, and the scale of liquidations in the derivatives market expanded.
Although short-term pressure is evident, Santiment data shows that retail sentiment has reached an extremely pessimistic zone, which historically often corresponds to the starting point of a phase rebound in the market. With Powell's key speech approaching, whether BTC can stabilize and stop its decline may become a key signal for judging the market direction.
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