After thirty, you may understand that the deepest essence of human nature is ultimately selfishness and loneliness. When we realize this, we no longer seek outward, no longer rely on anyone, and no longer overestimate our position in others' hearts. We should treat ourselves well, maintain our integrity in our own world, and go with the flow in others' worlds.

Yesterday's market was consistent with our analysis, completing another bottoming out. Due to the presence of significant high-leverage short liquidity above, the market chose to first clear the short liquidity in the 114500-115000 area during a process of oscillating recovery. Currently, the market has oscillated back down to below 114000, which is considered a normal daytime oscillation rhythm. In terms of operations, we were optimistic about a short-term upward oscillation yesterday and chose to lay out short positions in the 114500-115000 area. The subsequent market successfully reached this position, and currently, we are looking at a floating profit of about a thousand points, continuing to wait for the next market movements.

Returning to today's market, we first look at the distribution of liquidity. Under yesterday's oscillating recovery, some high-leverage short liquidity was cleared, but since it did not directly reach above 115000, there remains some residual high-leverage short liquidity above. This results in a relatively balanced state of long and short liquidity in the short term, with not much difference in the number of positions held. The re-gathered short-term liquidity is mainly concentrated around 115200 above, while below it is around 112500. From the density of liquidity, the distribution of longs below appears to be denser. Regarding spot premiums, the overall spot premium has slightly increased, but this rising wedge does seem a bit weak. If there is a pullback, we first expect a double bottom; if it does not break a new low and the premium continues to rise, we can consider the pullback to be nearly complete. However, if a new low is broken, under continuous liquidation, we will still maintain our target of 110000 for liquidation.

On the technical side, the daily level closed yesterday with a bullish candle from a low position, but from the overall structure of the daily level, a small bullish candle is not enough to change the overall trend structure, which is still in a downtrend. Moreover, looking at the daily cycle, there is an expectation of a double top M formation. In terms of moving averages, the death cross remains, keeping the price suppressed below it. According to the daily level, the MA120 line supports around 108900. If the market subsequently pulls back to this position, we need to pay close attention to the effectiveness of this support. In terms of technical indicators, there hasn't been much change compared to yesterday; the rebound did not indicate a shift to bullish in the MACD cycle, while the RSI has slightly recovered from a low position.

On the four-hour level, there was a trend of bottoming out and recovering yesterday, with the market rebounding upwards from the bottom. Currently, it has not been able to break through due to the pressure from the middle track of the trend, causing the market to fall into low-level oscillation in the short term. If another low point appears on this four-hour chart, it may indeed need to go to 110000 to find support, as the current market is operating in a bullish MACD cycle but does not show strong rebound strength. This weak bullish MACD cycle can easily shift into a bearish cycle. With yesterday's recovery, the RSI has approached the middle area from a low position, and there is still some distance from being oversold, so if a pullback occurs, there is still room for decline. Overall, we will maintain our recent thinking; after all, yesterday did indeed follow our expectations and completed an upward surge. As for whether the market will again test the downside as expected, it depends on how the market chooses to move.

In terms of operations, we are still holding the short positions in the 114500-115000 area. As a precaution, we can set a breakeven stop loss. If the market clears the remaining short liquidity above in the short term, we can set a breakeven stop loss and then choose to lay out short positions above 115200. On the downside, it may not be very suitable to go long in the short term, as the short liquidation needs to go below 112500, which is very close to refreshing the low point. Generally speaking, in a weak structure, continuously breaking lows to go long is a relatively dangerous operation. Therefore, for short-term long operations, we need to observe the real-time market strength. If we reach the liquidation area at 110000, we can still operate after the market moves.

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risk yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delayed information. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】

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