The analysis attributes the downturn to a June escalation with Israel, widespread power outages, and the June 18 $90 million Nobitex breach (attributed to the pro‑Israel group Predatory Sparrow), which disrupted liquidity and eroded trust in domestic virtual asset service providers; TRM found Nobitex handled over 87% of Iranian‑linked volumes and that roughly $2 billion of its $3 billion throughput moved via the TRON network. TRM also highlighted Tether’s large freeze of Iranian‑linked addresses, continued outbound flows underscoring crypto’s role in capital flight, shifts by users toward DAI and Polygon, the emergence of a domestic KYC‑bypass market, and documented instances of crypto used for procurement and alleged espionage — concluding that Iran’s crypto ecosystem shows resilience but faces rising systemic risk and declining public confidence.

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