The crypto market's rebound this week signals an attempt to pivot from the sustained downtrend noted since mid-August, with experts attributing this comeback to improving macroeconomic conditions and on-chain metrics.
Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Bitcoin, XRP and Solana posted gains of at least 2% each according to CoinGecko data—carrying BTC back above $111,000 for the first time since last Friday.
While Bitcoin is only up slightly on the week, by 1% as of this writing, Solana has posted a weekly gain of more than 7%, per CoinGecko. Other top coins like Ethereum, Dogecoin, and BNB remain slightly down on the day.
Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee told Decrypt that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar has "bolstered risk-on sentiment and encouraged capital flows into assets like cryptocurrencies."
He added that macroeconomic factors are "amplifying this trend, with markets increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts expected in September 2025, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as cryptocurrencies."
Lee pointed to declining Bitcoin exchange reserves, slipping BTC dominance, and Satoshi-era whales accumulating Ethereum, reinforcing the aforementioned bullish sentiment.
“The net taker volume has turned positive, suggesting traders are now leaning toward a short-term upside,” DarkFost, a pseudonymous verified analyst at CryptoQuant, told Decrypt.
The overnight uptick in open interest for Bitcoin, with a 7-day change in open interest crossing a negative threshold, indicates a liquidation of positions. This has historically been followed by positive reactions, according to DarkFost.
The rise in open interest is a result of "conviction-driven positioning rather than speculative excess," Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, told Decrypt. Metaplanet's acquisition of 1,009 BTC on Monday exemplifies this data-backed conviction.
The overwhelming expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17 further cements the market's conviction. The CME's FedWatch tool shows a 91.8% probability of a 25-basis-point cut.
Lim, however, provided a crucial warning that this sentiment reflects "reactive futures pricing" rather than a true understanding of the Fed's complex decision-making process.
He stresses that the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report, scheduled for this Friday, will be the true test of this optimistic outlook.
A bullish scenario, according to Lim, would arise if the jobs report comes within the 90K-120K range, as this would validate a cooling labor market and almost guarantee a rate cut, potentially pushing Bitcoin higher.
A challenging scenario would arise if the jobs report exceeds 150K or demonstrates "tariff-driven wage pressures." Such a development could push the Fed to "delay cuts or deliver hawkish messaging," even if a rate cut occurs.
Under this alternative outlook, Bitcoin is likely to revisit the $104,000-$106,000 range, potentially leading to significant liquidations.
Lim noted that the market is overconfident and that the Fed may deliver a hawkish message even while cutting rates, which could create volatility for positions expecting a more dovish policy pivot.
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