Can the US Escape UK Bond Yield Surge Pattern After September Fed Cut?

The financial world is stunned as the UK bond yield surge pushes the 30-year gilt above 5.70%, a level not seen since April 1998. The twist? This milestone comes despite Bank of England rate cuts — five in just twelve months.

As per The Kobessi Letter X post , traditionally, when interest rates drop, long-term borrowing costs should also decline. Yet the United Kingdom shows the opposite: yields are climbing higher, signaling unusual stress inside the debt security market.

Why UK Bond Yield Surge After Bank of England Cut Rates?

The British government bond, called a “gilt,” has hit 5.70% — the highest since April 1998. This means lending money to the government for 30 years is now very costly.

The chart clearly shows:

• UK 30 years Yields have jumped steeply after years of staying much lower.

• Even after five rate cuts in 12 months, yields are still climbing.

• This is not normal behavior for a bond market.

In 15 days, the Fed will cut rates for the first time in 2025, yet the 30Y Treasury Yield is now near 5.00%.

Normally, rate cuts lower yields. But the country's rate cut decision has failed to calm investors. Instead, the bond market crisis highlights fears of:

• Persistent inflation not easing as expected.

• Mounting United Kingdom debt crisis worries.

• Loss of confidence in the long-term safety of gilts.

The Kobeissi Letter described it as a global warning: “When you have higher rates with rate cuts, something is seriously wrong.”

US Fed September Rate Cut Almost a Done Deal : Here’s The Data

Across the Atlantic, the United States Federal Reserve is preparing to act very differently. Data shows an 89.7% probability that the US Fed September rate cut will lower borrowing costs from 425–450 bps to 400–425 bps.

Source: Bitcoin Expert India X Account

Markets are betting heavily on easing:

• Cheaper credit: Stimulus for stocks.

• Higher liquidity: Boost for Bitcoin and gold.

• Investor confidence: Risk assets positioned to rally.

The big question: Will the U.S. follow the US vs UK bond yields divergence — or will the Fed’s move trigger the same paradox we see in Britain?

US vs UK Bond Yields: Same Playbook or Two Very Different Stories?

• United Kingdom → Cuts are not helping. Yields keep rising, signaling deep structural problems.

• United States → Fed rate cut odds rising = optimism, liquidity wave, potential market rally.

So, while America sees easing as a bullish signal, Britain’s treasury market is flashing a serious warning sign. However, as per my analysis being a crypto market analyst, if markets lose faith in Treasuries after September, the United states . could face the same stress.

Why Investors Are Watching Gold and Bitcoin Closely

Global capital is shifting fast. With UK bond market news latest flashing red, investors are seeking alternatives:

• Gold → Classic hedge against inflation and debt instability.

• Bitcoin → Rising as digital “safe haven” amid market distrust.

If both the UK and U.S. enter a “interest  cuts + higher yields” paradox, many investors are now looking at gold and Bitcoin. Both are seen as safer alternatives when traditional treasury markets feel broken.

Key Takeaway: Is the Treasury Playbook Broken?

• The UK Bond Yield surge shows rate cuts no longer guarantee lower returns.

• The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut in September, but if earnings rise instead of falling, America could be walking straight into the same storm as Britain.

The real story isn’t just about interest rates. It’s about trust in debt markets.
If debt security surge continue despite cuts, the global financial system could be entering uncharted waters.

For now, the US September fed cut promises easing, while Britain battles structural fragility. But if the Fed faces the same paradox as London, the world may learn the treasury market’s old rules no longer apply, and in that case, the real winners could be alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold.