Content Source: Uweb Live Sharing Class
Content Organizer: Peter_Techub News
The 185th session of the Uweb live class, themed "Essence of Study Tours in the Greater Bay Area of the United States," was hosted by Uweb President Yu Jiayu, alongside two outstanding alumni—Crypto investor and founder of Xinguang Baize Boutique Investment Bank, Flow Wang Peng (Mr. Peng), and Crypto fund manager A Tian, delivering a wealth of insights. This session revolved around three core topics: interpretation of Uweb Web3 must-see data weekly report, how American peers lead the industry, and a private discussion among Uweb students on how crypto brokers operate the integration of coins and stocks. Below is a complete summary, deeply analyzing the three major topics, presenting a global perspective and practical strategies for Web3 investment.
1. Interpretation of Uweb Web3 Must-See Data Weekly Report
This session featured Teacher He Shaofeng presenting the on-chain data weekly report, providing an in-depth analysis of the latest developments in the Web3 industry, offering investors market predictions and operational guidance.
1. Market Review and Trend Judgment
This week, the market experienced a pullback, with mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, as well as some altcoins, declining, while Solana showed relative resilience. He Shaofeng pointed out that the current market aligns with last week's predictions, indicating that the bull market has not yet reached its end, and the main upward wave is in the mid-term phase. Historical data shows that long-term holders (holding for over 155 days) have cumulatively distributed 350,000 BTC in this round, only half of the previous round (776,000 BTC), indicating that the distribution of chips is not yet complete, and there is still room for the bull market to continue. Investors should remain cautiously optimistic, focusing on subsequent capital inflows and the reconstruction of market consensus.
2. On-Chain Data Insights
Holding Period Storm Chart: Long-term holders are accelerating distribution, with some large whales swapping BTC for ETH, but the market's absorption capacity is insufficient, requiring a re-establishment of consensus to initiate the main upward wave.
UTXO Energy Band: A strong support level has formed in the $110,000 price range, with investors showing a strong willingness to buy the dip, filling the "vacuum chip area," laying the foundation for subsequent price increases.
Funding Rate Heatmap: The funding rates for BTC and ETH are healthy, showing no signs of overheated leverage, indicating that the market has not yet reached the peak of the bull market.
Global Momentum Radar: Investor sentiment in the Americas has declined, temporarily suppressing BTC prices, but a rebound in sentiment may signal the start of the main upward wave.
Liquidity Pulse Chart: The total market value of stablecoins has slightly increased, with rising demand for buying the dip, indicating capital inflow.
On-Chain Liquidation Curve: Short-term holders' losses are shrinking, speculative funds are being washed out, and the chip structure is becoming healthier, providing support for the market.
3. Off-Chain Data Highlights
BTC Spot ETF: This week saw a net inflow of $430 million, with the outflow trend slowing down, restoring market confidence.
Macroeconomic Expectations: The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has reached 86%, and the upcoming employment data may further boost demand.
4. Risks and Outlook
Bullish expectations in the market persist, but caution is warranted regarding the risk of accelerated declines if prices break below support levels. Trading volume is relatively weak, requiring more liquidity and enthusiasm to confirm upward momentum. He Shaofeng emphasized that the current market has not yet reached a "boisterous" climax, and peak signals have not emerged, allowing investors to seize mid-term opportunities.
2. How American Peers Lead the Industry
The study tour in Silicon Valley provided guests with a global perspective, revealing how the U.S. leads the Web3 industry through policies, funding, and innovation.
1. Cognitive Impact of the Silicon Valley Study Tour
Flow Wang Peng: The on-site exchanges in Silicon Valley far exceed the quality of information available domestically, correcting the distorted perceptions of blockchain in the Chinese community. The U.S. is driving a "crypto revolution," showcasing a long-term commitment from social foundations to the deep ties of the Trump family. The crypto industry has become the third-largest lobbying system in the U.S., with clear legislative trends similar to historical industrial revolutions. The U.S. is leveraging Crypto to "make money" globally, and Chinese investors need to clarify their positioning to seize both short-term and long-term opportunities.
A Tian: As a newcomer, the study tour validated that traditional cyclical thinking (such as halving or monetary policy) is no longer applicable. The U.S. promotes Crypto development through national power and legal frameworks, viewing it as a tool with high certainty. The incubator culture in Silicon Valley supports startups, providing funding and resources, and the open environment is friendly to capable individuals. Crypto is transitioning from a "small circle" to the mainstream, with the entry of traditional industry professionals marking the industry's shift into the "from 1 to 10" phase.
2. The Impact of Crypto on American Society and Policy Stability
Flow Wang Peng: Drawing a parallel to China's real estate boom, Crypto has integrated into American society, altering wealth distribution and economic structure. A legal expert from Coinbase pointed out that despite sharp conflicts between the two parties, there is consensus on crypto legislation, as opponents must consider voter interests. The high volatility and value capture ability of Crypto are reshaping society, with policy support stemming from the joint push of voters, capital, and politics, and short-term adjustments do not alter long-term trends.
A Tian: Approximately 30-40 million cryptocurrency holders in the U.S. (mainly males aged 20-50) are keen on political participation, enhancing Crypto's influence. State government pension funds, 401K plans, and university endowment funds allocate 5%-20% to Bitcoin, indicating the mainstreaming of the industry. Policy stability arises from social trends rather than a single piece of legislation, and short-term electoral disputes are unlikely to reverse long-term directions.
President Yu: The logic of coin-stock integration lies in Bitcoin's returns surpassing those of U.S. stocks. The U.S. enhances its competitiveness by absorbing Crypto. Crypto has become a consensus among elites and the middle class, and policy support is unlikely to reverse. Information in the Chinese community is easily manipulated by interest groups, and on-site investigations confirm that the U.S. is the source of narrative, urging investors to pay attention to narrative logic and extension directions.
3. Stablecoins, RWA, and the Integration of Digital Assets with Mainstream Finance
Flow Wang Peng: Stablecoins enhance the efficiency of cross-border payments (e.g., Huma project T+0 payments, annual returns of 15%-18%), with the market scale expected to reach trillions of dollars. Hong Kong is a pioneering pilot area, and deep integration can occur once the policy for RMB stablecoins is clarified. RWA needs to rely on stablecoins to achieve on-chain liquidity, and once offline assets (like government bonds) are brought on-chain, their value can be amplified through a flywheel effect. The tokenization of U.S. stocks (STO) has enormous potential, and policy relaxation will drive breakthroughs.
A Tian: Ordinary investors should focus on infrastructure and financial ecosystems (such as payments, DeFi, DEX) rather than issuing stablecoins. Mainstream public chains (like Ethereum and Solana) will carry RWA, and the value of public chains will grow with asset scale. Ethereum is seen as "digital real estate," with significant investment potential, and small to medium-sized teams can participate in infrastructure development to seize high-cost performance opportunities.
4. Comparison of Hong Kong and the U.S. and the Ride-Along Strategy
Flow Wang Peng: The U.S. attracts entrepreneurs through "physical regulation," suppressing competition with long-arm jurisdiction. Starting a business requires building connections and investing time in the U.S., while investments need to connect with U.S. channels to gain first-mover advantages. If unable to go to the U.S., one can set up in Hong Kong, waiting for policy dividends like RMB stablecoins to seize pilot opportunities.
A Tian: Individual investors should delve deeply into familiar fields, and teams should send members to the U.S./Hong Kong to build connections. Chinese resources are strong in the U.S., and investments can benefit from focusing on U.S. trends and policy dividends (like coin-stock linkage), participating in public chain and infrastructure investments to share in global Crypto dividends.
President Yu: Hong Kong is a super sandbox, piloting Crypto policies that can be promoted to the mainland in the future. The U.S. leads the narrative, while Hong Kong undertakes the practice. Investors can master the logic of both regions through Uweb courses, preparing for opportunities in RMB stablecoins and RWA.
3. Uweb Students' Private Session: How Crypto Brokers Operate Coin-Stock Integration
The internal session focused on how crypto brokers operate the integration of coins and stocks, concentrating on changes in holdings and integration strategies after the study tour.
1. Changes in Holding Plans After the Study Tour
Flow Wang Peng: The cognitive impact after the study tour is greater than changes in holdings. Discussions in the U.S. about Bitcoin reaching $1 million (2030-2033) contrast sharply with the Chinese-speaking community's focus on short-term peak escapes ($120,000-$150,000), highlighting significant dimensional differences. He believes the cyclical logic has changed, and the pullback may no longer reach 70%-80%, leaning towards long-term holding and reducing short-term operations.
A Tian: Maintaining an all-in BTC strategy, planning to shift to ETH while paying attention to public chains like Solana and Avalanche. Public chains serve as "digital real estate" carrying RWA, with significant investment potential, and the strategy is primarily conservative, focusing on long-term appreciation.
President Yu: Americans do not sell coins (due to 40%+ capital gains tax) but borrow against BTC (4%-6% cost) for on-chain wealth management (10% returns), maintaining an increasing holding amount. The Chinese-speaking community frequently trades due to the contract market and low tax rates, leading to reduced holdings. It is recommended to learn the long-term holding strategies of Americans, keeping a core position and appropriately rebalancing.
2. In-Depth Views on Coin-Stock Integration
Flow Wang Peng: Coin-stock integration is a long-term trend in U.S. stocks, with crypto assets bringing new liquidity, cycling back BTC and ETH. Ethereum's strength stems from confidence in diverse assets, and the probability of reaching new highs after adjustments is significant. Integration does not divert funds but rather attracts new capital, similar to how U.S. stocks absorb high-growth assets.
A Tian: Questioning the models of traditional treasury companies like MicroStrategy, the improvement of ETFs may reduce demand. New types of treasury companies (like Cream and Nakamoto Company) hold 60%-80% BTC/ETH and 20% for incubation, balancing Beta and Alpha returns, similar to semiconductor concept stocks, which have high short-term enthusiasm but require unique competitiveness.
President Yu: Coin-stock integration is validated by Bitcoin's returns exceeding those of U.S. stocks (since 2019). Investment banks confirm its long-term trend. New types of treasury companies are shifting from asset-driven (PB) to earnings-driven (PE), amplifying return potential. Approximately 15% of the U.S. population (54 million) holds crypto assets, with PAC influence ranking seventh, and policy stability is evident. The progress of the Clarity Act is slow, but the demand for stablecoins indicates deepening integration.
3. WLFI Project and Investment Strategy
President Yu: World Liberty Financial (WLFI, currently $0.223, 24h -15.74%) is a core project of the Trump family, with DeFi potential, not just a simple meme coin. Combining triple leverage (assets-coin price-stock price-options) with the USD1 stablecoin ecosystem, the long-term outlook is positive. The current unlocking of 20% poses significant selling pressure, but after the drop, it becomes a buying point, predicting a price range of $0.35-$1.20 by the end of 2025. It is advised to wait for stabilization before entering to avoid FOMO.
Alumnus Chen: WLFI management is "rough," and the unlocking (20%-25%) is unclear, with insufficient past patterns from Trump, and a high FDV ($100 billion), posing significant risks for future takeovers, leaning bearish.
President Yu's Response: Acknowledging the selling pressure risk, but emphasizing the deep involvement of the Trump family (holding 1.575 billion coins), with active trading (Bybit volume of $270 million), indicating significant long-term potential, urging to DYOR.
Summary and Course Preview
This live session showcased the global trends in the Web3 industry through data weekly reports, insights from the U.S. study tour, and coin-stock integration strategies. The market outlook is bullish in the mid-term, with significant potential in stablecoins and RWA. The U.S. leads the narrative while Hong Kong undertakes the practice. The Uweb Web3 Future Wealth Course (September 26-29, Shenzhen) will delve into coin-stock linkage, BTC/ETH layout, and on-chain data analysis, inviting KOLs like Frank and Mo Fei to teach, with arrangements for Hong Kong account openings and institutional visits, helping students seize trend dividends. President Yu calls for a global perspective in the crypto space, connecting resources from Hong Kong and the U.S., avoiding information silos, and seizing Web3 wealth opportunities.
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