All that happened yesterday has become today’s you and me. Not everyone can do what they want to do or become who they want to be. We always think that once we grow up, we can solve all problems, but later we realize that growing up is the beginning of all problems. Once a person is dissatisfied with their current life, they will always long for the past. The cost of growing up is slowly losing the original self.
In the past few days, the market fluctuations have not been significant. First, there was a small-level rebound, with the high point reaching above 113,000, and now it has started to slightly decline again. The volatility is indeed very low. In terms of operations, there hasn’t been anything particularly noteworthy these days; we are still following the previous strategy to go short, with mixed results. In the current market, it is more appropriate to operate based on fluctuations in the short term. However, looking at the current mode of operation, it seems to be getting closer to the pullback market we mentioned earlier.
Returning to today’s market, we will first look at the distribution of liquidity. Unsurprisingly, due to the market's fluctuations, there is currently a buildup of liquidity both above and below, and the distribution of liquidity between bulls and bears is relatively even in the short term. The short-term bears are mainly located around 112,500, while the short-term bulls are mainly around 110,000. From the perspective of open positions, the liquidity of bulls is not much different. The liquidity in the fluctuating market has also become relatively flat, and the bulls and bears are still in a balanced and stable state, needing to observe the subsequent market movements. Regarding the spot premium rate, although the premium index previously saw a significant rebound, it has decreased again due to the current market conditions. Overall, the spot premium is still in a relatively dangerous area, with low demand for capital purchases.
On the technical side, the weekly closing resulted in a small bullish candle. However, in the current weekly structure, this small bullish candle does not change the trend; it is more like a bottom consolidation with a bullish close, still within a downward structure of the cycle. The MA7 line is running downwards, and if this week closes bearish, it is highly likely that the moving averages will begin to form a death cross. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD has entered a bearish cycle with a death cross, still in the early stages, forming a top divergence structure, and the strength of the pullback has not yet emerged, with weekly trend support around 99,300.
On the daily level, a weak rebound has emerged amidst the fluctuations. We have previously mentioned that there would be a rebound expectation on the daily chart, likely a weak rebound, but unexpectedly, the current rebound strength is somewhat below expectations. The daily moving average system has become very chaotic, with K-line fluctuations showing a weak upward trend. The MACD has entered a bullish cycle but has not produced significant rebound strength. However, it is still in the early stages, and if it can break upward later, we can still expect another rebound trend, followed by a pullback.
On the four-hour chart, the market is moving slowly, with the K-line having consecutively closed three bearish candles, which has made the short-term market slightly weaker. The short-term is under some pressure from the MA120 line, and in terms of technical indicators, the MACD volume has been relatively weak in recent cycles, and the current bullish cycle is also weak. Therefore, this cycle is likely not very strong, and in the short term, it will continue to show a bearish fluctuation, followed by a rebound correction.
In terms of operations, looking at the overall situation, we will first observe a short-term fluctuation and decline, likely completing the liquidation of liquidity below before proceeding with a rebound. Once the rebound is complete, we can plan for a trend short position. Therefore, today, we will short around 111,500 and wait for a pullback, then look to go long below 110,000. The subsequent operational arrangements will depend on how the market moves.
【The above analysis and strategy are for reference only. Please bear the risk yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes are real-time. The information may be delayed, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
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