Key Points:
Bloomberg analysts believe that the probability of the approval of the Ripple (XRP) ETF is 95%, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make a decision in October.
Despite the growth of stablecoins, the adoption of XRPL lags behind its peers, accounting for only 2% of real-world assets (RWA).
The price of Ripple (XRP) fell back after reaching a nearly two-week high of $3.04 on Tuesday. This increase was driven by market speculation about the approval of the U.S. Ripple (XRP) exchange-traded fund (ETF) and increased institutional participation in Ripple (XRP) derivatives, leading to new expectations about whether Ripple (XRP) can return to the July high of $3.60.
Data shows that the demand for Ripple (XRP) futures increased by 5% month-on-month, totaling 2.69 billion Ripple (XRP), valued at $7.91 billion at current prices. Notably, the number of open contracts for Ripple (XRP) futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) surged by 74% in the same 30 days, reaching 386 million. This reflects increased activity from professional fund managers and market makers.
Although the increase in futures activity typically indicates heightened market interest, the current long and short positions remain balanced. However, monthly futures contracts can serve as a signal for leverage imbalance. In a neutral market environment, Ripple (XRP) futures usually trade at a premium of 5% to 10% over spot prices to compensate for the longer settlement period.
Data shows that the monthly futures premium for Ripple (XRP) is 7%, indicating that leverage demand remains balanced, consistent with trends over the past month. Part of the subdued market sentiment is due to Ripple (XRP)'s underperformance compared to the broader altcoin market.
Since August, the price of Ripple (XRP) has remained relatively flat, while the altcoin market has risen by 14% during the same period. This recent increase was primarily driven by Hyperliquid (HYPE) rising 32%, Solana (SOL) rising 28%, Cardano (ADA) rising 19%, and Ethereum (ETH) rising 18%. The most significant momentum for Ripple (XRP) in August came from the settlement of Ripple's long-standing dispute with the SEC.
Expectations for the approval of the Ripple (XRP) ETF in the U.S. have become a core driver of recent price performance. Bloomberg analysts estimate the probability at 90% or higher, but the SEC's final decision is not expected until the end of October. The REX-Osprey product is expected to be the first to launch a combination of ETF and ETN structures, using a model similar to Solana staking (SSK), without needing direct SEC approval.
The stablecoin RLUSD issued by Ripple has surpassed $700 million in assets, which is also receiving significant attention. Despite this milestone, nearly 90% of the supply is issued on the Ethereum (ETH) network, having almost no direct impact on the demand for the Ripple (XRP) ledger. Additionally, the stablecoin market is still dominated by mainstream issuers with deeper liquidity, including Circle's USDC and World Liberty's USD1, creating significant competitive pressure.
Some investors hope that XRPL can develop into a major infrastructure for international payments, replacing the existing SWIFT system or achieving rapid expansion in the tokenization space. However, data from RWA.xyz shows that XRPL accounts for only 2% of the total real-world assets (RWA), lagging behind smaller blockchains like Avalanche, Stellar, and Aptos.
It is not impossible for Ripple (XRP) to rise to $3.60, but given that the total locked value (TVL) of XRPL is only $100 million, the probability of sustained increases is limited.
Related: The U.S. Congress requests the Treasury Department to report on strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve details.
Original: “Ripple (XRP) Aims for $3 Amid ETF Approval Hopes, Next Stop $3.60?”
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