1. Technical Analysis: Bullish and Bearish Signals from Indicators
First, let's look at the core indicator combination:
Bollinger Bands (BOLL): The price is running above the middle band (4305.45), with the upper band (4338.30) forming short-term resistance and the lower band (4272.61) providing support. Currently, the price is fluctuating near the middle band, indicating intense short-term bullish and bearish competition, but overall it has not deviated from the range-bound oscillation pattern.
MACD: The DIF line (0.96) has crossed above the DEA line (-1.77), and the MACD histogram has turned from green to red and continues to expand — this is a clear signal of short-term bullish momentum recovery, suggesting that the rebound momentum is accumulating.
RSI: RSI1 (53.43), RSI2 (56.12), and RSI3 (52.76) are all above the neutral level of 50, and have not entered the "overbought zone (above 70)", indicating that bullish strength is dominant and there is still room for upward movement.
KDJ: The K value (76.99), D value (68.61), and J value (93.73) are close to the "overbought area", but the J value is still diverging upwards, showing that short-term bulls still have momentum; however, caution is needed for the potential pullback risk if the "KDJ turns down" subsequently.
2. On-Chain Data: Subtle Changes in Capital and Positions
From an on-chain perspective:
In the past 24 hours, the net inflow of Ethereum to exchanges has continued to narrow, while the ETH holdings of institutional wallet addresses have slightly increased — this indicates that "some large funds are positioning themselves on dips", showing a relatively optimistic outlook for ETH's mid-term trend.
In the futures market, the funding rate for perpetual contracts remains within a reasonable range, and the basis has not shown extreme positive/negative premiums — both bulls and bears are temporarily balanced, with no obvious signs of "short squeezing", and the short-term trend relies more on the "technical and news catalysts".
3. News Impact: Dual Influence of Ecosystem and Market
The dual nature of the core catalysts in the news:
Positive Factors: The total locked value in the Ethereum Layer 2 network is "continuously increasing", significantly enhancing ecosystem activity — this provides fundamental support for ETH's value; at the same time, BTC stabilizing at a key position also brings a "positive impact of correlation" to ETH.
Potential Risks: Attention should be paid to the "marginal changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations" (if new inflation/employment data exceeds expectations) — this could impact the "risk appetite" of the entire crypto market, thereby affecting ETH's trend.
4. Future Trend Prediction
Considering all three aspects, the short-term rhythm for ETH is:
Upward Momentum: Technical bullish signals and on-chain capital "moderate positioning" create resonance, giving ETH the momentum to challenge the upper Bollinger Band near 4338. If it can "effectively break through the upper band", the upper space can be seen reaching the 4360-4380 range near previous small highs.
Pullback Risk: With KDJ close to overbought + upper Bollinger Band resistance, if "upward momentum is insufficient", the price may retrace to Bollinger Band middle band at 4305, or even the lower band at 4290 to seek support.
Trading Reference Direction: Bullish
Market Entry: 4315
Hard Stop Loss: 4290
Take Profit:
1: Close 50% at 4375
2: Close remaining 50% at 4425
Want to get more timely on-chain data tracking and real-time trading ideas? Remember to follow me, as I will continue to share professional and objective market analysis with a high success rate in daily strategies! Analysis is not easy, so I hope everyone can give a free follow, save, like, and comment. Thank you all, and feel free to leave comments below; I will reply.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
