Key Points:
Approximately 1.7 million Ethereum (worth $7.5 billion) have been concentrated in the $4,300 to $4,400 range, forming a strong support.
Institutional demand has surged, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reaching a new high in open interest, dominated by short-term contracts.
$4,500 remains a key level for Ethereum; if broken, there is potential for upward movement, but the possibility of the price dipping to $4,000 still exists.
This month, Ethereum (ETH) has continued to oscillate narrowly between $4,500 and $4,200, showing signs of weakening momentum. The lack of decisive buying pressure indicates market concerns about short-term trends, but on-chain data suggests that the market is in a deeper accumulation phase.
CryptoQuant data shows a key change in the $4,300 to $4,400 range. Approximately 1.7 million Ethereum (equivalent to $7.5 billion) have been transferred to holding addresses in this range, with many funds flowing out of centralized exchanges, and the average cost approaching $4,300. This price range has formed strong support, and if the price declines again, it may become a critical defense line.
Exchange fund flow analysis indicates that Binance has played a significant role in this accumulation phase, handling the largest outflow of funds during this period. Interestingly, the average cost of funds flowing into Binance wallets is closer to $3,150, indicating a divergence in positioning between long-term holders and active traders.
Institutional fund flows are also impacting the market landscape. CME's open interest (OI) has reached a new high, with a very high proportion of short-term (one to three months) contracts.
While this increases the volatility risk at contract expiration, it also shows strong institutional participation. Long-term (three to six months) contracts are also increasing, reflecting greater confidence in Ethereum's trend.
Crypto analyst Pelin Ay states that institutional demand and derivative positions indicate there is still upward potential for the market, with Ethereum prices nearing $5,000. Despite the ongoing liquidation risks, the analyst believes the overall trend remains intact. Pelin notes:
From a technical perspective, short-term charts show that Ethereum's movement remains hesitant. During September, the asset has mostly hovered between $4,200 and $4,500, while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) have reached new highs. This divergence indicates that short-term funds are flowing into other mainstream coins, but once Ethereum effectively breaks through $4,500, market momentum is expected to quickly return.
However, the risk of liquidity being swept away below remains high. Key support is at $4,200, with significant order book support/demand in the $4,000 to $4,100 range. If Ethereum's price continues to weaken in early Q4, it may first retreat to these ranges before attempting to break above $4,500.
Crypto trader Merlijn believes that as key monthly indicators turn green, the probability of an immediate rebound increases. This trader points out:
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