Dear friends, today's market seems to be diverging, but in reality, it hides a logical main line. First, looking at the macro perspective, the general expectation of the market regarding the Federal Reserve's policy has directly driven most of the stock market to strengthen, and the futures of coking coal have continued to rise along with previous structural demand; however, the sudden news of Trump’s dismissal of Cook being rejected has injected uncertainty into the market. This combination of "expectation + sudden events" has highlighted the safe-haven properties of gold, with prices approaching the 3700 mark.

In contrast, the cryptocurrency sector presents a completely different picture. Bitcoin and Ethereum have not followed the safe-haven logic; instead, they have both tested key psychological levels to the south. This reverse trend across markets needs to be carefully analyzed in conjunction with technical aspects.

First, let's analyze Bitcoin. The current structure of 124590 is still in effect, and the central resistance zone of 115770-119900 is crucial. When it previously tested 107200 to the north, the pressure signal at 116700 was particularly evident. The 4-hour chart shows a PB pattern; whether it is a short-term inducement or a continuation of a weak trend, the demand to the south still exists. Additionally, with the MACD dead cross above the zero line, the short-term downward pressure has not diminished.

Now looking at Ethereum, the structure of 4768 has formed, and we need to be cautious of the risk to the south in the short term. The breakout points are concentrated between 4700-4640, with an effective central zone of 4450-4323. However, there are still rebound opportunities in the upper range of 4800-4900. The main structural oscillation center is between 4200-4800, with the breakout point at 4715 being an important watershed. The 4-hour chart shows a pregnant line, suggesting a possible upward trend. The resistance at the three-minute candlestick is 4550, with the breakout point resistance at 4580, and divergence pointing to 4676. The MACD fast line is close to the zero line, so we need to pay close attention to the strength of support, and the shrinking momentum bars below the zero line are also worth noting.

Tonight, there are two key data points that cannot be ignored: at 20:30, the U.S. retail sales for August will be announced, and at 21:15, the U.S. industrial output for August will be released. These two data points are likely to influence the market's short-term direction, so everyone should pay close attention.

Finally, I want to emphasize trading discipline: always set a stop loss when opening a position, and do not open a position without a stop loss! If you encounter issues such as being stuck in a position that you cannot resolve, you can follow the public account: KK Communication, where a professional team will provide you with support!

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