September 18, 2 AM: U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Upper Limit) as of September 17
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Bitcoin Market Trend Analysis
As of today, the price of Bitcoin is $115,516.65, down 0.14% from yesterday. Although the decline seems minor, it contains rich market information from a technical analysis perspective.
Technical Analysis
From a daily chart perspective, Bitcoin's price has recently been in a high-level consolidation pattern. The Bollinger Bands are slightly narrowing, indicating reduced market volatility, with both bulls and bears becoming increasingly entrenched. The price is currently hovering near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, which provides certain support and resistance. In terms of the MACD indicator, the histogram is above the zero line, but its length is gradually shortening, and the fast and slow lines show signs of flattening, suggesting that while bullish forces still hold some advantage, they are gradually weakening, and the market's upward momentum is lacking. The KDJ indicator is around 50, showing a consolidation state without clear overbought or oversold signals, further confirming the balance of bullish and bearish forces.
Switching to the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin's price trend is more intuitive. In the last 4 hours, the price has significantly dropped compared to yesterday, successfully breaking through the intraday low. Although the last candlestick is bullish, closing higher than it opened, the overall price and trading volume have both decreased, indicating a relatively quiet market atmosphere, with bullish forces weakening during this period. From the MACD analysis, there is no clear market trend, but the histogram remains negative and is gradually lengthening, indicating strong bearish forces. In terms of the moving average system, the MA10 value is greater than the MA30 value, and the short-term moving averages show a downward divergence trend, indicating that the market is in a bearish consolidation pattern in the short term. Based on technical indicators, the first buy point is at $110,007.26, the second buy point is at $111,832.7853, the long stop-loss point is at $110,326.36, the first sell point is at $116,762.0, the second sell point is at $116,795.8, and the short stop-loss point is at $117,215.67. The nearest support level is at $113,257.0, and the nearest resistance level is at $116,762.0. These technical indicators and key levels provide important references for investors' short-term trading decisions.
Impact of News
Recently, the Bitcoin market has been impacted by various news factors. On the macroeconomic level, the uncertainty of global economic data has intensified. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% before seasonal adjustment; excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% before seasonal adjustment. This data reinforces expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with the market fully digesting the scenario of three rate cuts before the end of the year. Traders estimate a 92% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and an 8% probability of a 50 basis point cut. Historically, loose monetary policy tends to increase market liquidity, theoretically benefiting the prices of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, as some funds seeking asset preservation and appreciation may flow into this sector. However, the complexity of market sentiment means that Bitcoin's price movements do not always align with macroeconomic expectations. Investors often adopt a more cautious attitude in the face of uncertainty, which may affect the pace and scale of capital inflows, making Bitcoin's price movements more complex and volatile.
In terms of market capital flow, the dynamics of Bitcoin spot ETF funds are under close scrutiny. Previously, Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted significant capital inflows, providing strong buying support for the market. However, the pace of inflows has recently slowed, raising concerns about the future upward momentum of Bitcoin's price. A decrease in capital inflows indicates a weakening of market buying power, which may lead to insufficient upward momentum for Bitcoin's price and even the risk of a pullback. Additionally, regulatory dynamics in the cryptocurrency market have significantly impacted investor sentiment. Some countries and regions have shown signs of adjusting their regulatory policies on cryptocurrency trading. Although no major policies have been implemented yet, the uncertainty of regulation has led many investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, which has somewhat suppressed market trading activity and indirectly affected Bitcoin's price movements.
In terms of market sentiment indicators, the options market shows a certain cautious stance. Although the overall market remains somewhat optimistic about cryptocurrencies, some investors are beginning to use options trading to hedge risks, indicating an increase in uncertainty regarding future Bitcoin price movements. For example, some investors may purchase put options to guard against significant price declines. This change in market sentiment can also impact Bitcoin's price, making short-term price fluctuations more frequent and unpredictable.
Ethereum Market Trend Interpretation
Today's price of Ethereum is $4,278.56, showing some fluctuations compared to yesterday.
Technical Analysis
From the daily chart, Ethereum's price has recently shown a downward consolidation trend. The Bollinger Bands are gradually expanding, indicating that market volatility is increasing, and the price fluctuation range is widening. The price is currently operating below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, which presents a significant resistance level. The MACD indicator's histogram is below the zero line and is gradually increasing in length, indicating that bearish forces dominate at the daily level, with a clear downward trend in the market. The KDJ indicator is in the oversold area, with a current value of 25, showing that the market is significantly oversold in the short term, indicating a certain demand for a rebound.
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum's price trend is relatively active. The last 4-hour candlestick shows that the price has rebounded compared to previous days, breaking through a recent low. The last candlestick is bullish, closing higher than it opened, and trading volume has increased, indicating a strengthening of bullish forces in the short term. MACD analysis indicates that the current market trend remains bearish, but the histogram shows signs of gradually shortening after turning negative, indicating a weakening of bearish forces after their exertion. Based on technical indicators, the first buy point is at $4,433.2, the second buy point is at $4,292.7323, the long stop-loss point is at $4,263.52, the first sell point is at $4,808.0, the second sell point is at $4,795.34, and the short stop-loss point is at $4,780.59. The nearest support level is at $4,276.0, and the nearest resistance level is at $4,808.0. These technical indicators and key levels provide important references for investors to grasp Ethereum's price movements in short-term trading.
Impact of News
The Ethereum market is also influenced by various news factors. In terms of market capital flow, the trend of Ethereum withdrawals continues, with a net outflow of a certain amount of ETH from centralized exchanges (CEX) in the past 24 hours. The funding rate for derivative market positions has maintained a positive value for most of the time, indicating a certain level of optimism in the market regarding derivative trading, with investors still holding some upward expectations for Ethereum's future price movements. However, the spot market has shown some instability. For example, in the past week, some exchanges have experienced significant net outflows of ETH, such as Coinbase, which saw a net outflow of up to $148 million in ETH, while exchanges like Kraken and OKX also showed net outflows in the tens of millions of dollars. Net inflows into exchanges are typically seen as potential selling pressure, while the current net outflow situation indicates that some investors are taking advantage of price rebounds to sell, undoubtedly adding significant uncertainty to Ethereum's price movements.
The development dynamics of the Ethereum ecosystem also impact its price. The Ethereum Foundation's strategic sale of $43 million in ETH to fund ecosystem development, while beneficial for the long-term construction and improvement of the Ethereum ecosystem, may raise concerns about increased supply in the short term, thus putting pressure on the price. In terms of industry competition, Ethereum faces fierce competition in areas like cross-border payments. XRP, ETH, and Remittix are all vying for dominance in cross-border transactions, and institutional bets on the PayFi revolution pose challenges for Ethereum from competitors. These competitive dynamics may influence investors' expectations for Ethereum's future development prospects, indirectly affecting price movements.
In summary, the market trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum today show a complex situation of bullish and bearish forces contending and transitioning, while news factors from macroeconomic policy adjustments, changes in capital flows, and fluctuations in market sentiment have a profound impact on prices. Investors need to comprehensively consider technical indicators and news factors when making decisions, carefully weighing risks and returns, and formulating scientific and reasonable investment strategies. In the current environment of high market uncertainty, closely monitoring market dynamics and changes in relevant news is particularly important for timely and flexible adjustments to investment strategies, as only by doing so can one seize investment opportunities in the waves of the cryptocurrency market.
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