On September 18, 2025, at 02:00 AM (Singapore time), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, marking the first official signal of a shift towards easing since the end of 2024. The market consensus points to a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate from the 4.25%-4.5% range to 4%-4.25%. Powell's press conference at 2:30 will serve as a litmus test for interpreting the easing path. The stark reality is that expectations have been fully priced in, and any deviation could trigger a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" chain reaction.

Dual Pressure of Weak Labor and Inflation

Trump has recently publicly criticized Powell again: "The Federal Reserve should act beyond expectations." If Trump's tariff policy returns to the White House, it could raise import costs and further amplify inflationary pressures. Market participants are concerned that this political noise could interfere with the Federal Reserve's independence.

Bitcoin is currently holding steady at the $116,000 mark, with trading volume surging 20% compared to last week. As "digital gold," BTC is highly sensitive to interest rates: a low-rate environment stimulates a recovery in risk appetite, with funds shifting from U.S. Treasuries to high-yield assets. However, historical data shows that volatility peaks often occur around FOMC meetings—after the first rate cut in December 2024, BTC surged 15% but then corrected 8% during the "sell the fact" phase. Tonight, leveraged traders need to be particularly cautious: the risk of high-leverage liquidation looms, and even a hint of hawkishness could trigger a chain collapse.

So far this year, the U.S. economy has shown signs of a "soft landing": the unemployment rate has slightly risen to 4.3%, and the CPI remains well above the 2% target range. The market predicts a 25 basis point rate cut is almost a certainty, with the focus shifting to Powell's statements: will he emphasize "economic resilience" and "inflation risks," or will he release a more dovish signal?

Three Scenarios: From Celebration to Collapse

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is nearly certain, but there remains a 5% tail risk for a 50 basis point surprise cut. Three scenarios are predicted:

• Scenario One: Surprise Easing (50 basis point cut)

If Powell states outright that "labor market risks are rising" and hints at consecutive rate cuts, it will be a "celebration night" for the crypto market. BTC is expected to break through resistance, aiming for the $120,000 mark—but don't celebrate too early: surprises often come with "liquidity illusions," and if inflation rebounds after funds flow in, the Federal Reserve may be forced to slam the brakes, leading to a larger correction.

• Scenario Two: In Line with Expectations (25 basis point cut)

The most likely outcome: a moderate rate cut, with the dot plot indicating two adjustments within the year. The dollar continues to weaken, and the crypto market seeks steady progress—BTC may oscillate upward in the $115,000-$117,000 range, while ETH benefits from a wave of stablecoin ETF applications. If Bitwise's "Stablecoin and Tokenized ETF" is approved, it will accelerate institutional fund inflows.

• Scenario Three: No Change in Rates or Hawkish Surprise

A black swan event: Powell emphasizes that "inflation risks have not dissipated, and economic resilience is strong," suggesting a cautious path. This will "shock" the market, with the crypto sector bearing the brunt: BTC may fall below the $110,000 support level, triggering a wave of leveraged liquidations. Trump's rhetoric at this moment becomes a double-edged sword: if the Federal Reserve withstands the pressure, the market will view it as a "victory for independence," but short-term pain is inevitable.

This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice for anyone.

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