Author: Joshua Chu, Co-Chairman of the Hong Kong Web3 Association

When you are young, you often feel underestimated due to a lack of experience. However, our elders simultaneously lament that time is on our side.

Bitcoin, like any young emerging technology, is no different. The early days are filled with uncertainty but also the promise of infinite possibilities. Time is on our side, allowing us to learn, adapt, and grow.

However, as we enter middle age, blinded by early victories and increasing recognition (or adoption—in a technical sense), we begin to pursue success and ever-growing wealth with an increasingly narrow vision. This is precisely where Bitcoin stands today, finally accepted by institutions and becoming a topic of everyday news, with every step celebrated but also burdened by the pressure of expectations. This stage brings urgency, risk, and a panic of losing control.

As the once infinite opportunities narrow, the moment before the end can feel suddenly and dangerously limited.

Bitcoin's rapid rise in 2025 is facing its own midlife crisis. Its adolescent exponential growth as an emerging technology is fading. Recently, CleanCore Solutions saw its stock price plummet by 60% after announcing plans to jump on the cryptocurrency treasury trend and transform into a Dogecoin treasury company.

This crash indicates growing skepticism among investors regarding speculative cryptocurrency initiatives, reflecting the broader challenges Bitcoin faces as it struggles to maintain momentum amid increasing market volatility, a situation that may be exacerbated by the Forbes cover curse.

Urgent questions about its durability, value, and purpose need answers. Like any good estate planning, it is often advised to draft a will.

Every technology has a lifecycle. Bitcoin is no exception. Bitcoin remains a technology constrained by the immutable laws of lifecycle dynamics. Bitcoin may experience bear and bull markets, but the growth cycles have begun to shorten. From a numerical perspective:

• The 2013 cycle grew by 310 times
• The 2017 cycle growth decreased to 143 times
• The 2021 cycle growth sharply contracted to 11 times
• The 2025 cycle growth is only hovering around 2.1 times

Each new cycle is about a quarter of the previous one, illustrating a concerning pattern of geometric decay.

According to academic mathematical statistics, Nassim Nicholas Taleb's paper "Bitcoin, Currency, and Fragility" theorizes in his "bubble model" that for non-yielding assets, price growth cannot continue indefinitely. Related: How rare is it to own a full Bitcoin in 2025?

When an asset essentially becomes a "faith-based" asset, market realities and discipline will ultimately drive that momentum downward, and eventually, the multiplier may fall below 1, shifting from a growth model to a contraction model. No economic or speculative run can escape the natural cycle of growth followed by adjustment or decline.

The question that must be asked is: Is Bitcoin approaching the edge of a cliff? Is Bitcoin's explosive adolescence giving way to the natural fatigue that all technologies must eventually face, or will there be a second spring, with the end not yet in sight?

Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin once articulated a vision of Ethereum's value based on "faith in the Ethereum blockchain." In a 2017 interview with Daily Show comedian Ronny Chieng, Lubin suggested that when people believe in cryptocurrency, that single factor is enough to "snowball into something society deems valuable."

In the same interview, he suggested that by doing so (having faith), it would be "very much like the dollar." His point seems to indicate that currency, at its core, relies solely on collective belief and trust. However, this perspective overlooks an important detail of fiat currency, which, unlike Bitcoin, is supported by monetary policy, taxation, fiscal measures, and, when government debt defaults, austerity measures, etc.

Faith-based assets will lack all these values. While the value of faith-based assets comes entirely from market demand and collective belief, fiat currency's backing is supported by the intrinsic value of the economic structure.

For some, Bitcoin has transcended being just another asset. In earlier narratives, Bitcoin was portrayed as a hedge against inflation, a protector from government control (at least in the pre-regulatory era). However, reality is always changing.

What truly stands the test of time is often not the product itself, but the infrastructure that supports the product. While MySpace and Netscape may have disappeared, the infrastructure of the internet has endured.

In many ways, Bitcoin started as a revolutionary product designed to challenge the traditional financial system. Its meteoric rise attracted millions, promising salvation in financial freedom.

However, like any technological product, it faces natural limitations. Even blockchain, the underlying technology of Bitcoin, is still based on cryptographic principles.

In contrast, blockchain infrastructure refers to the physical and operational components that enable blockchain networks to operate reliably at scale. These include network nodes (including full nodes and validating nodes), network protocols, and data storage systems that maintain and support the ecosystem.

Like any midlife crisis, Bitcoin has reached a critical crossroads. While ETFs and institutional purchases resemble Bitcoin graduating from college to middle management, Bitcoin's increasingly diminished volatility (also attributed to its early explosive growth) suggests maturity, if not contraction.

Recognizing this trend, OG investors either divest from Bitcoin and reinvest in newer tokens like Ethereum or turn to infrastructure to formulate long-term strategies. However, both trends point to Bitcoin's future.

This shift emphasizes a fundamental truth—no matter how revolutionary, individual technologies ultimately have a limited lifespan, while enduring infrastructure will outlast their product counterparts.

For investors, innovators, and policymakers, just as our receding hairlines or expanding waistlines remind us that a lifecycle perspective is crucial for navigating Bitcoin's own midlife phase, such a perspective must also serve as our guide toward the next evolution of the industry ecosystem.

Perhaps, before you propose a Bitcoin treasury plan with a 20-year lock-up period, consider this: Do you have any electronic devices at home that are 41 years old or older? Were you even born 41 years ago? Bitcoin, as a technology, will be 41 years old when those locked tokens become fully available, starting from the genesis block in 2009. Reflecting on Bitcoin's lifecycle is crucial for making informed strategic decisions in this rapidly evolving world.

Author: Joshua Chu, Co-Chairman of the Hong Kong Web3 Association.

Related: Hong Kong's new crypto regulations are here! Detailed explanation of CRP-1 and its impact on the market…

This article is for general informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Original: Opinion: The Growth Engine of Bitcoin (BTC) is Losing Momentum

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