Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Speaking of the recent interest rate cut by the Americans, it was completely a nonsensical operation expected by the market. The FOMC gave a wave of ups and downs on the spot. It seemed lively, but what was the result? Nothing changed; it had already been digested in advance.

The aftershocks of the capital game will continue for a few days, but in the long run, unless the rate cut can directly shatter the market's expectations, the trend has not been rewritten at all. To put it bluntly, there were no surprises after this meeting, nor any major shocks; in the short term, it leans towards bullish, as the capital sentiment in the U.S. is slowly rising.

Then I opened the dot plot and saw that there are still two cuts by the end of 2025 and three cuts by the end of 2026, which is certainly a positive for the market. The only wild card is old Powell's words; if he insists on a hawkish tone, the market may need to adjust in the short term, but the overall direction has already been clarified.

As we all know, the Federal Reserve is implementing a preemptive interest rate cut, preferring to support employment rather than directly confront inflation. Liquidity will be released in waves, and the market will certainly oscillate, but ultimately it will move towards a breakthrough.

Back to the market, from the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently oscillating around the major range of 107.3K to 123K. Previously, it retraced to 107K and hit the same low point; now it is moving upwards with a rebound, stabilizing at the midpoint of the range.

My expectation is straightforward; Bitcoin has already plundered 117.5K, so we can look for short-selling opportunities around 119K later. If it surges above 117.5K and then turns back, that would be the time to short.

However, if it breaks below 114.3K and a large bearish candle appears, that would signal the complete end of the daily level's oscillating upward trend, directly switching to a short-selling mindset. On a larger scale, I won't pull you into neutrality; this kind of range trading is all about plundering back and forth.

Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is basically locked in, with another 25 basis points expected in October and December. Don't fantasize about a violent rate cut; the Federal Reserve wants to grind step by step, guiding the market with expectation management.

Since the recession hype has been suppressed, there’s no chance of negative news; in the long term, it’s all positive. The question is in the short term, will this positive news turn into a case of good news being fully priced in? I think it’s quite possible; anyway, the next 30-40 days are destined to be a good opportunity for a pullback and bottoming out.

Ethereum is also quite critical; 4660 to 4670 is key. But the lower support at 4580 must be held; otherwise, it will directly collapse. If it can hard charge past 4770, there is indeed a slight chance to touch 4970.

But to be honest, that would require the entire market to start FOMOing from now on, with not a hint of a decent pullback; even a four-hour pullback wouldn’t be acceptable for it to reach that point.

Speaking of this, I recalled previous years; from September 31 to October 4 or 5, there’s always a wave of pullbacks. Whether it’s our holiday or the Americans' holiday, there will be some market smashing.

If it really pulls all the way to the end of the month, remember to reduce your position in the medium to long term; don’t hold on stubbornly to a pullback like before, waiting to be smashed through when the car is full, and then it will be too late to cry.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 119000

First Resistance Level: 118300

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 116500

Second Support Level: 115500

Currently, at the four-hour level, 116.5K cannot be lost; if this position is held, the rebound view remains. 117K has already broken through, and next we’ll see if it can stabilize at this psychological support.

Currently, it is in a short-term upward channel, and any small pullbacks or rebounds during the day must occur within this channel. The first resistance at 118.3K is the previous high from mid-August; before charging, it needs a decent pullback to digest, otherwise, it’s a false breakout.

The second resistance at 119K is the real test; it must first deal with 118.3K, then consolidate around 117K to build a base before it has a chance to reach 119K.

The first support at 116.5K was originally a previous high, now turned into support; if it can hold, it can still play long. The psychological level of 117K also needs to be monitored. The second support at 115.5K, if broken, would turn the short-term outlook bearish. The area just above 116K is a battleground; stop-loss and take-profit can be set, don’t hold on stubbornly.

Before yesterday, the market was stuck in a box, now the short-term direction is basically set, which is upward. The trading strategy going forward is very simple: go with the trend. Look for opportunities to buy on dips, and don’t chase at high positions.

9.17 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the range of 116500-116800, Target: 118300-119000

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it’s all after-the-fact. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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