Written by: Steven
$124,000, this is the historical high reached by Bitcoin in this bull market, but the subsequent pullback and consolidation have made the market somewhat perplexing.
Has this bull market already reached its final destination?
From on-chain data, it seems we are currently in a phase where the data is severely "conflicting":
From historical experience, the alarm has been sounded.
The time window is approaching: Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle typically peaks 12 to 18 months after the halving. Now, we are entering this critical time window.
Old money is cashing out: Those long-term holders who can endure the longest have begun to realize profits on a large scale, with on-chain data showing they have transferred over 3.4 million Bitcoins. This is a classic signal in the late stages of a bull market where veterans distribute chips to new entrants.
Institutional "throttle" has loosened: The Bitcoin ETF, once seen as a stabilizer for the market, has recently shown a significant slowdown in capital inflow, even experiencing net outflows at one point, causing the market to lose crucial buying support.
Under the dual pressure of long-term holders selling and slowing ETF inflows, market sentiment has briefly fallen into the "panic" zone.
But to say the bubble has burst seems overly hasty.
We must look to the most reliable "bubble gauge" — the MVRV Z-Score (Market Value to Realized Value ratio). This indicator can accurately tell you whether the market is in an extremely overbought state.
Currently, the MVRV Z-Score is hovering around 2.0. Recall that historically, during every true euphoric peak, this indicator surged to 3.0 or even above 5.0.
The core contradiction lies here: selling pressure is accelerating, but on-chain valuations indicate that the market is still far from the historical bubble peak.
It is precisely the structural changes driven by institutions that are extending the lifecycle of the bull market, transforming a sharp, rapid peak into a more gradual, sustained "high plateau."
As the market reaches this point, what is your choice?
Do you believe in the "distribution" signal from veterans? Or do you trust the "bull market extension" logic of institutional structure and on-chain valuation indicators? Feel free to share your strategy in the comments: is it a strategic retreat, or are you looking to accumulate on dips, preparing for the next wave of impact?
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