🔍 Event Review

In just one hour, the ETH market experienced a rapid fluctuation. At 22:30, the ETH price sharply dropped from around $4340 to $4187 in a short period. Subsequently, under market panic and a chain liquidation effect, it continuously lost key support levels, eventually dipping below $4100. Market news indicated that multiple macro and micro events combined to impact crypto assets, triggering panic selling and a chain liquidation of high-leverage positions, causing ETH prices to fall into a downturn.

⏰ Timeline

• 22:30: ETH price plummeted from around $4340 to $4187, initially exposing high leverage risks.
• 22:58: Trump issued a lengthy tweet mentioning China's export controls and increased tariffs, escalating global risk aversion, while ETH prices remained volatile near high levels.
• 23:04: Trump threatened to increase tariffs on China, causing the Nasdaq to drop by 1%, triggering further market panic and dragging down risk assets.
• 23:21: ETH price fell below $4200, indicating that market sentiment continued to be under pressure, with increased selling pressure.
• 23:31: Under the impact of high-leverage trading and chain liquidation effects, ETH price fell below $4100, showing clear technical downward signals.
• 23:42: The ETH long positions of some major holders were exposed, with liquidation prices approaching $4000, exacerbating market selling pressure.
• 23:50: The market briefly stabilized, with ETH's latest price rising to $4110.97, but the overall volatile pattern had not completely changed.

💡 Reason Analysis

• Macroeconomic and Policy Uncertainty
  Recently, the U.S. government has faced repeated shutdowns and funding plan obstacles, and Trump's threats of tariffs on China have further fueled global market risk aversion. The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and initial jobless claims data has led investors to generally shift towards more stable safe-haven assets, thereby putting pressure on risk assets like ETH.

• High-Leverage Trading Triggering Chain Liquidations
  The prevalence of high-leverage trading has led to a concentration of positions near key price levels in the market. When sentiment turns to panic, a large number of forced liquidations occur, further accelerating the decline in ETH prices. In the past hour, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $60 million, with long positions accounting for as much as 94%, and a net outflow of $100 million from major players, which undoubtedly corroborates the dual impact of technical selling and liquidity scarcity.

📊 Technical Analysis (Based on Binance USDT Perpetual Contract ETH/USDT 45-Minute K-Line)

• Price and Moving Average Relationship

• ETH price is currently running quickly along the lower Bollinger Band, positioned below the MA5, MA10, MA20, and EMA series moving averages, showing a bearish arrangement, with a clear overall downward trend.

• The medium to long-term moving average system formed by EMA24 and EMA52 also shows a downward slope (EMA24 slope: -0.92%, EMA52 slope: -0.54%), indicating a bearish signal in the medium term.

• Oversold Indicators and Volume Analysis

• The RSI is in the oversold region, and with the J value extremely low, it indicates potential for a technical rebound in the short term. However, at the same time, the OBV indicator continues to decline, indicating that selling pressure remains strong.

• Trading volume surged by 118.69%, far exceeding the 10-day and 20-day average volumes (increasing by 308.87% and 156.21%, respectively), which to some extent means that panic selling is dominating the market, with active trading but lacking buying support.

• K-Line Pattern

• The current K-line chart presents a typical "Black Three Soldiers" pattern, characterized by consecutive bearish candles, each closing lower than the previous one, strongly suggesting that the market is under short-term bottom selling pressure.

🚀 Market Outlook

Although ETH currently shows signs of short-term overselling, the market may experience some technical rebounds at low levels. However, overall, multiple factors still make the medium to short-term outlook full of uncertainties. Key points of focus include:

• If U.S. macro data and policy expectations continue to decline, risk aversion may further spread, increasing downward pressure on prices;
• The risks of high-leverage trading and chain liquidations are unlikely to be quickly resolved in the short term, with support levels around $4000; if these levels cannot be effectively maintained, it may trigger deeper adjustments;
• From a technical indicator perspective, although the RSI and J values suggest potential rebound opportunities, the bearish arrangement of moving averages and the continuously expanding volume differences indicate that the market is still in a panic selling phase, with rebound strength likely limited.

Investors facing this volatile market should be wary of potential technical corrections in the short term while also paying attention to macro policies and changes in liquidity, reasonably allocating positions, reducing excessive leverage risks, and waiting for clearer market reversal signals.

Overall, ETH is currently at the center of the storm influenced by market panic and chain liquidations, and future trends will still need to seek answers in the ongoing interplay between macro policies and market sentiment.

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