Prediction markets, which have enabled betting on all kinds of possibilities and events in real time, have also allowed potentially illicit actions from actors directly linked to the resolution of these events. The movements of a prediction market tied to the Nobel Peace Prize have been interpreted by observers as a possible instance of insider trading.

Maria Corina Machado, a Venezuelan opposition leader who was not listed as one of the favorites, rose as the leading option with over 60% of the betting volumes in Polymarket just hours before the announcement. Before, Machado had not reached even 3%.

Today, the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced that Machado was selected as the laureate of the peace prize for her “tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.”

Machado’s bet dominance and posterior victory sparked talks on possible insider trading or a leak from the Norwegian committee on social media.

Venezuelan political commentator John Acquaviva hinted at this possibility, highlighting that the outcome suggested traders using privileged information to take advantage of Machado’s win.

“Three people last night started betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on her to win, turning her into the favorite in a matter of minutes and winning millions of dollars in the process,” he stated, stressing that a group knew the outcome hours before it was announced.

Polymarket has been linked to controversy before. In the last Venezuelan elections, the platform decided to award the victory to Edmundo Gonzalez, even when the National Electoral Council proclaimed Nicolas Maduro as the winner amidst allegations of fraud.

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