This article is only a personal market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Any gains or losses incurred from actions taken based on this are at your own risk.

In the past week, the US-China rivalry has intensified further, with both sides continuously escalating their positions. Until last night, Trump once again threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China starting from November 1, triggering market panic, causing a sharp decline in US stocks and a bloodbath in the cryptocurrency market. Many altcoins plummeted over 90% within 5 minutes, and Binance's ATOM spot price even dropped to 0.001, it was simply a Trump effect.

In terms of the decline in altcoins and the amount of liquidation, it has already far exceeded the panic period of March 12, 2020, witnessing history in the cryptocurrency market once again.

First, let me share my thoughts on the tariff war itself. Last night, Trump first claimed he would no longer seek a meeting with Chinese leaders, but then backtracked, stating that he did not rule out the possibility of a meeting. The APEC summit is on October 31, and Trump's tariff implementation date is November 1. Both sides are currently under extreme pressure, continuously playing their cards to increase their negotiation leverage in hopes of gaining an advantage in the talks. The consequences of a breakdown in negotiations are unacceptable for both parties at this time. Considering Trump's historically high-low approach, I personally judge that the summit at the end of October will still result in talks, with both sides needing to make significant concessions on the conditions they have currently stated.

Based on this judgment, the period leading up to the APEC summit will present a buying opportunity for risk assets. However, if both sides continue to escalate their positions in the next two weeks, short-term pain will be unavoidable, and uncertainty will be high.

In the cryptocurrency market, during this pullback, altcoins have been relatively cleared out in terms of spot selling and contract leverage compared to ETH and BTC, making the market quite light. After a week or two of fluctuations, it is likely that altcoins will experience a noticeable rally after November.

In the short term, there is no directional view. If I had to say, the risks are somewhat greater. China has not yet responded to Trump's statements from last night. After China's response, the US will respond, and with this back and forth, the short-term trend may not be favorable.

The A-shares are also expected to face a heavy blow when they open next week. Since the third quarter, the A-share prices have soared, with high valuations and significant floating profits, making a short-term pullback inevitable. However, compared to April, the extent of the pullback should not be as severe. In April, the reciprocal tariffs left the market completely ignorant of the future, leading to obvious panic. But after more than half a year of confrontations, both sides have clarified their bottom lines (fighting without breaking). The current level of market panic and preparedness is better than in April, especially with expectations for the APEC summit negotiations. Unless something unexpected happens that leads the market to believe negotiations are completely off the table.

Moving forward, we can observe index ETFs, such as the CSI 300 ETF. If there is a significant volume spike, it can be bought without hesitation. This indicates that the national team is stepping in to support the market. The following chart shows several important volume spikes since September 2024. If this decline continues to expand and we encounter a volume spike, feel free to buy.

Follow me to maximize trend profits with minimal operations.

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