On October 11, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a severe upheaval: Bitcoin plummeted to a low of 101,652 in the early session, while Ethereum saw a maximum daily drop of over 18%. The scale of liquidations in the futures market reached record levels, with both institutional whales and retail investors unable to escape the impact of the liquidations. As panic sentiment was gradually released, the market entered a phase of low-volume consolidation on October 12. Under the dual effects of external shocks triggered by "Old Trump" tariff remarks and internal ecological differentiation, the cryptocurrency market is exhibiting unprecedented structural characteristics, making it essential to seize opportunities within the fluctuations.
I. Origins of Market Turbulence: Resonance of External Shocks and Internal Vulnerabilities
This cryptocurrency market crash is not an isolated event but rather the result of the interplay between external macro disturbances and internal ecological risks, with a clear and typical transmission path.
From the triggering factors, the global sell-off of risk assets sparked by "Old Trump" tariff remarks became the direct catalyst. Cryptocurrencies, as high-volatility risk assets, are far more sensitive to geopolitical and trade policy changes than traditional financial markets. Amid rising uncertainties regarding tariff policies, institutional investors were the first to reduce their holdings through ETF channels, exacerbating market selling pressure — this echoes the lack of confidence reflected in the net outflow of $795.8 million from Ethereum ETFs in late September. Notably, although Bitcoin also experienced ETF fund outflows, its status as the "anchor asset of the cryptocurrency market" meant that the scale of outflows and the level of market panic were both less severe than for other cryptocurrencies.
From an internal perspective, market vulnerabilities had long been evident. Systemic risks in the altcoin sector are particularly pronounced: the excessive issuance of tokens in the primary market has led to oversupply, with new coins frequently breaking below their initial listing prices, a phenomenon often referred to as "cutting leeks." Coupled with the pressure of unlocking existing tokens and the risk of delisting from exchanges, most altcoins lack price support. This unhealthy internal ecology quickly evolved into a collective crash under external shocks, ultimately forming a pattern of "junk coins going to zero, mainstream coins correcting." The high-leverage trading in the futures market amplified the volatility, leading to a wave of liquidations in the short term.
II. Analysis of Core Cryptocurrency Trends: Long and Short Battles in a Consolidation Phase
After the panic-induced decline, the two core cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, entered a phase of consolidation, but their technical patterns and support logic differ significantly.
(A) Bitcoin: Anchor Attributes Highlighted, Consolidation Range Becomes Key
Bitcoin demonstrated strong resilience during the market on October 11: after a flash crash to a low of 101,652, it quickly rebounded nearly 13,000 points to a high of 114,975, subsequently entering a tug-of-war in the 109,000-115,000 range. Behind this trend is its unique market position and funding structure support. As the "barometer" of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has long benefited from the support of ETF fund inflows — since the approval of spot ETFs in 2024, fund flows have become the core driving factor of its price movements. Even during short-term corrections, the strength of buying at lower levels remains robust, reflecting institutional investors' recognition of its long-term value.
From a technical perspective, the current consolidation is an inevitable process of market repair. The short-term support formed around the 109,000 point aligns closely with the previous upward trend's support level; if it can be maintained, it is expected to build a temporary bottom. However, caution is needed regarding the risk of a breakout during low-volume consolidation: if the 109,000 support level is effectively broken, it may trigger a new round of selling; if it can break through the 115,000 resistance level with increased volume, it would indicate the end of the consolidation, and the market may return to an upward channel. Future changes in volume will be a key indicator for judging direction — historical data shows a significant positive correlation between ETF fund inflows and Bitcoin price increases.
(B) Ethereum: Confidence Recovery Lagging, Key Price Levels Determine Direction
Ethereum's consolidation pattern is more complex; after dropping from 4,022 to a low of 3,275 on October 11, it has rebounded multiple times but has not been able to stabilize above the key resistance level of 3,950, currently oscillating around 3,750. This performance is closely related to the lack of market confidence: since September, Ethereum ETFs have seen continuous net fund outflows, setting a record for weekly outflows, reflecting investors' concerns about its short-term prospects. Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum lacks an equivalent "anchoring effect," and the regulatory uncertainties surrounding its staking services have not been fully resolved, leading to heightened risk-averse sentiment.
From a technical standpoint, Ethereum is currently at a critical node for long and short battles. The 3,640-3,700 range forms core support, which aligns with the intersection of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages; if it breaks below 3,640, it may further test the 3,500 or even 3,403 support levels. The 3,850-3,950 range above forms strong resistance, and only by stabilizing above 3,950 and breaking through the 4,000 mark can a short-term trend reversal be confirmed. It is particularly important to note that Ethereum's movements are strongly correlated with Bitcoin's; its breakout direction largely depends on Bitcoin's volume dynamics, making single-coin analysis prone to judgment errors.
III. Market Landscape in 2025: Investment Strategies Under Structural Opportunities
This market turbulence further reinforces the differentiation characteristics of the cryptocurrency market in 2025 — a comprehensive bull market is unlikely, and structural opportunities have become mainstream. Investors need to abandon the "broad-based rally mindset" and establish an investment framework based on asset selection and risk control.
(A) Asset Selection: Focus on Core Assets and Certainty Narratives
The pattern of "Bitcoin's solo performance, partial altcoin rallies" has become clear for 2025. Bitcoin, as the "safe asset" of the cryptocurrency market, has not fundamentally changed its long-term logic: the continuous inflow of ETF funds, the supply contraction brought about by the halving cycle, and the increase in institutional allocation ratios all support its long-term upward trajectory. For risk-averse investors, Bitcoin remains a core allocation target, and corrections during fluctuations can be seen as opportunities for phased positioning.
The altcoin sector is not devoid of opportunities, but it must closely align with the core narrative of "expectations for the approval of spot ETFs." Historical experience shows that the approval of ETFs has a significant uplifting effect on the prices of cryptocurrencies — after the launch of the first Solana spot ETF in Canada, its price rose by 5% on the same day; after the introduction of new virtual asset spot ETFs in Hong Kong, related cryptocurrencies also experienced valuation recovery. Currently, although the U.S. SEC has delayed decisions on the approval of ETFs for Litecoin, Ripple, and others, market expectations for ETFs of certain potential cryptocurrencies remain, and these cryptocurrencies with clear regulatory narratives are likely to become the "survivors" among altcoins. Caution is warranted regarding cryptocurrencies without substantial value support, as their short-term rebounds are often fleeting, and their upward cycles generally do not exceed three days.
(B) Operational Strategy: Key Points for Risk Control in a Consolidating Market
In the current low-volume consolidating market environment, the core of the operational strategy is "controlling positions and grasping rhythm." For Bitcoin, one can adopt a "buy low, sell high" strategy within the 109,000-115,000 range, but if the range is broken, strategies must be adjusted promptly: increase positions on upward breaks and stop losses on downward breaks. For Ethereum, it is necessary to wait for confirmation of support at 3,640 or a breakout signal at 3,950 before entering the market, avoiding blind operations in ambiguous ranges.
In terms of risk control, three key awareness points must be reinforced: first, leverage control awareness, as the high liquidation risk in the futures market is further amplified in a consolidating market; retail investors should decisively reduce leverage ratios or stay away from futures trading; second, diversification awareness, avoiding heavy positions in a single cryptocurrency, and ensuring a reasonable allocation ratio between core assets and potential cryptocurrencies; third, stop-loss and take-profit awareness, setting clear stop-loss points (e.g., Bitcoin at 109,000, Ethereum at 3,640) to avoid panic selling or greedy chasing of highs.
IV. Conclusion: Grasping Long-Term Logic Amidst Volatility
The market turbulence in October 2025 is essentially an inevitable pain point in the cryptocurrency market's transition from "barbaric growth" to "regulatory adaptation." External shocks like "Old Trump" tariff remarks are merely catalysts; the real driver of market differentiation is the reconstruction of the internal value system — funds are accelerating their concentration from worthless cryptocurrencies to core assets and compliant narrative targets.
For investors, rather than getting caught up in "whether the bull is still here," it is better to focus on "where the value lies." Bitcoin's anchoring position and ETF fund support, along with the regulatory narratives and compliance expectations of certain potential cryptocurrencies, will form the core investment line of the cryptocurrency market in 2025. During the market's consolidation and repair phase, maintaining rational judgment, strengthening risk control, and keeping up with real-time dynamics will enable one to seize certain opportunities amidst the fluctuations. The speed of change in the cryptocurrency market far exceeds that of traditional financial markets; only by continuously tracking fund flows and policy dynamics can one achieve stable returns in a structural market.
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