The content released by the Ministry of Commerce yesterday and the General Administration of Customs today is not considered aggressive, and there hasn't been an escalation of countermeasures like in April. The opening data for the U.S. stock market this morning is also good, and Asian investors are not reacting much to the tariffs this time. The U.S. stock market is up in pre-market trading. It seems that the probability of TACO this time is quite high, at least that is the market's expectation. It appears that there hasn't been any statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs?

If the Ministry of Foreign Affairs remains silent, can it be interpreted as still assessing the situation or trying to avoid an escalation of conflict? After all, the events of April are still fresh in memory. If it ends here, and the window for a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping is not completely closed, Trump's choice to increase tariffs on November 1 is also to apply pressure.

Personally, I feel that if China does not upgrade its countermeasures with a new round of substantial actions, it indicates that both sides are still willing to negotiate, as revealed by the statements from Vance and Trump yesterday. If China does not strengthen its countermeasures, I personally believe that the impact of tariffs will be temporarily overlooked by the risk market. Of course, I could be wrong.

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