Today's assignment is of hell-level difficulty. If the decline on October 11 had some traceable reasons, this time the drop, although not as severe at the moment, indeed lacks a clear cause. Of course, this isn't about finding reasons for every decline, but if I can't identify the reason for the downturn, it becomes very difficult for me to judge whether to enter the market.

Knowing the reasons allows for a clear understanding of the trend changes. For instance, the trigger on October 11 was the US-China trade situation, but now the US-China trade has gradually stabilized. The statements from China's Wang Yi and the US's Blinken clearly show escalating rhetoric between the two countries, and Trump is still preparing to meet Xi Jinping, indicating that the market already has expectations of TACO.

However, today's decline indeed lacks a clear reason, which makes it difficult for me personally to judge the short-term trend. Reasons are like reference points; without them, it's like groping in the dark. My reasons for the decline are similar to the data of K-line experts, just presented differently. Currently, I see a possible connection to the continued government shutdown causing GDP losses.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the increase in turnover rate does show a trend of rising panic, but the scope of panic is still limited and has significantly eased compared to October 11. This is likely because many investors have become more cautious after the last leverage explosion.

From the URPD data, it remains that loss-making investors are the main force behind the selling, while earlier investors have not shown significant reactions. The current chip structure is still within the support range, and there hasn't been a large-scale panic from major investors at the support level. As long as there is no collapse at the support, the situation should not be too severe.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。