Tracking real-time hotspots in the cryptocurrency market and seizing the best trading opportunities. Today is Friday, October 24, 2025. I am Wang Yibo! Good morning, crypto friends! ☀️ Die-hard fans check in! 👍 Like to make big money! 🍗🍗🌹🌹

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As we enter the countdown of one week into October 2025, the "standstill" farce has entered its 24th day. The CPI data, which has been "difficult to produce," is finally about to be released. On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.89%, the S&P 500 up 0.58%, and the Dow Jones up 0.31%. Today's U.S. September CPI report is expected to show persistent inflation, and the money market is preparing for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. The Fed may be more focused on the labor market, and we expect that Friday's CPI will not have a significant impact on the Fed's decision next week. We may see two rate cuts this year, in October and December. According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is 98.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 1.7%. The cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in December is 93.4%. Stay tuned to Yibo for the latest updates.

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Against the backdrop of rising macroeconomic expectations, the cryptocurrency market showed an overall upward correction yesterday. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded, but the strength of the rebound was notably divergent. The current market is at a critical juncture, compounded by potential volatility risks during Friday's trading session and the upcoming CPI report and Fed policy announcements. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears may intensify, and it is essential to pay close attention to key price level breakthroughs and news developments.

[Bitcoin: Upward movement encounters resistance, central consolidation awaits breakthrough]

Bitcoin maintained a corrective upward pattern throughout yesterday, starting its upward climb after hitting a low of $106,631 in the morning. As buying pressure gradually increased, it surged to a high of $110,262 during the midday session, but faced significant resistance at this level, leading to a subsequent pullback. In the evening session, the price dipped to a low of $108,685, where effective support was established, allowing bulls to regroup and push the price back up to around $111,250, refreshing the intraday high before retreating again. As of now, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $109,500.

From a technical perspective, the current price is at the central position of the 4-hour channel, which serves as a balance point for short-term bullish and bearish forces and is a critical watershed for subsequent trend formation. To establish a clear bullish trend, Bitcoin must strongly break above the upper boundary of the 4-hour channel and the key level of $122,000, which would open up greater upward potential. If it fails to achieve an effective breakthrough, the price is likely to continue fluctuating within the existing channel, repeatedly testing the support and resistance of the upper and lower boundaries.

It is worth noting that today is Friday. Will "Black Friday" come? The current market not only faces the pressure of capital reallocation before the weekend but also the test of the U.S. September CPI report. Although we anticipate limited impact of the CPI data on the Fed's decision to cut rates in October, the market sentiment fluctuations before and after the data release should not be underestimated. It is crucial to closely monitor the movements of on-site capital and pay close attention to changes in news, as any significant news could disrupt the current balance of fluctuations.

[Ethereum: Weak rebound linked to Bitcoin, mid-line pressure becomes key]

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum also showed a rebound trend in line with the market yesterday, but its overall performance was relatively weak. After hitting a low of $3,706 in the morning, the price began to rebound, maintaining an upward rhythm during the day. In the afternoon, it tested a high of $3,902 but then fell back due to insufficient momentum. In the evening session, the price briefly dipped to $3,806, and after a short adjustment, it rebounded again, reaching a high of around $3,935 before facing pressure and retreating. In the early morning hours, the price fell to a low of $3,815, then began a slight rebound, currently trading around $3,850.

From a technical standpoint, Ethereum is currently in the lower-middle range of the 4-hour channel, exhibiting clear signs of weakness. It has made several attempts to break through key resistance levels recently but has failed to establish effective breakouts, indicating heavy selling pressure above. For the subsequent trend, the breakthrough of the mid-line at $3,920 in the 4-hour channel is crucial. If it can achieve a solid breakout and stabilize at this position, it may drive the price towards the upper boundary of the channel. If it continues to struggle against the mid-line pressure, attention should remain on the range between the $3,700 low and the mid-line, being cautious of the risk of a downward test of support.

Summary and Trading Suggestions

Overall, supported by the macroeconomic positive expectation of a Fed rate cut, the market showed a corrective trend yesterday. However, the two major cryptocurrencies exhibited divergent performances, with Bitcoin relatively strong but failing to break key resistance, while Ethereum was constrained by mid-line pressure and showed weakness. The current market is at a critical technical juncture, and the release of today's CPI report may serve as a "catalyst" for short-term trends, with the direction still unclear.

In terms of trading strategy, it is advisable for investors to remain cautious and avoid blindly chasing highs. For Bitcoin, focus on the breakthrough of the $108,685 support and the $111,250 resistance. If it breaks above $111,250, consider entering with a small position; if it falls below $108,685, be wary of the risk of a pullback. For Ethereum, concentrate on the defense of the $3,800 support and the $3,920 resistance, treating it as a range-bound fluctuation until a breakout occurs.

A special reminder: Volatility may increase before and after the release of today's CPI report, coupled with the potential risks of "Black Friday." Be sure to implement risk control and set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit levels. Also, closely monitor the Fed's policy dynamics and the correlation effects with U.S. stocks. Follow Yibo for the latest market interpretations and trading suggestions!

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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the market, don’t know when to enter, don’t know how to set stop-losses, don’t understand take-profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to catch the bottom, unable to hold onto profits, missing out on market opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the right trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth more than a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeated failures. Instead of frequent trading, it’s better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to progressing steadily with you in the market.

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