Risk Control and Coin Listing

Written by: Lucida

Introduction

In the wealth wave of the crypto world, we are always looking for that perfect platform that allows us to "win while lying down." In the last issue, we analyzed the profit potential of major exchanges, but behind high returns often lurk even higher risks. A truly excellent exchange should not just be a fleeting "wealth creation myth" creator, but rather a solid and reliable "night watchman" for your assets.

So, who can remain calm in a frenzied market and accurately defuse risks for you? Who has a hound-like sense of smell, always a step ahead, capturing the next explosive opportunity?

To answer these questions, LUCIDA's evaluation will deepen its perspective, conducting a data-driven "comprehensive examination" of mainstream exchanges from two core dimensions — risk control capability and coin listing capability. We will no longer rely on subjective reputations but will use quantitative "odds," "break-even rates," "halving rates," and other hard indicators to penetrate the fog and see who is safeguarding you and who might put you in danger.

At the same time, we tracked the listing trajectories of several popular star coins, revealing the "rhythm" of different exchanges: who always lets you take the first sip, and who arrives late at the end of the market? In summary, we present the second issue of CEX comparison — Risk Control and Coin Listing.

I. Risk Control Capability

Behind high returns often lie the fangs of high risks. A good exchange should not only be a "wealth factory" but also the first line of defense for your assets. We need to look not only at how much it can bring in terms of price increase but also at whether it has the ability to help you "defuse risks" and protect your principal.

We quantitatively assessed the risk control strength of exchanges from three dimensions: odds, break-even rates, and the proportion of halved coins. Let’s delve into the data to see who is swimming naked and who is providing protection.

1. Odds: How many "pits" do you need to step on to capture a "dark horse"?

The calculation formula for odds is as follows:

Press enter or click to view image in full size

Where nCEX,i represents the number of coins on a certain CEX that have increased by more than 500% in the i-th backdrop; mCEX,i represents the number of coins on a certain CEX that have decreased by more than 50% in the i-th backdrop.

This indicator can measure the risk-reward level of "how many significant drawdown coins you need to endure to obtain a coin with an excess increase" from a probabilistic perspective. In simple terms, it measures how many "crashes" you might have to endure for one "surge." The specific calculation results are shown in the table below:

Press enter or click to view image in full size

From the data, it is clear that in the three observation periods, MEXC and Bybit consistently rank at the top in terms of odds. In other words, here you have a better chance of capturing those skyrocketing targets with less "trial and error cost."

2. Break-even Rate: New listings are no longer a "blind box"

A break-even is the deepest fear of every new listing enthusiast. We use it to measure the exchange's ability to evaluate new coins. The calculation formula is as follows:

Press enter or click to view image in full size

BCEX,i indicates the number of break-even coins on a certain CEX in the i-th backdrop; NCEX,i represents the total number of newly listed coins on a certain CEX in the i-th backdrop.

The break-even rate indicates the proportion of break-even coins among the newly listed coins in this backdrop. To be closer to the real cost, we use the opening price of the next day as the benchmark. The calculation results are shown in the table below:

The results show that Binance demonstrates robust control over the break-even rate, usually maintaining the lowest. Bitget and Bybit also perform reliably. However, Gate did not make it into the top three in all three evaluations, requiring extra caution for those interested in new listings.

3. Proportion of Halved Coins: How many "halvings" can your account withstand?

Halving is the nightmare of asset shrinkage. A coin dropping by half from its peak can have a devastating impact on investment confidence. We calculated the proportion of "halved coins" across exchanges, directly reflecting the overall health of the exchange's coin pool.

The calculation formula for this indicator is as follows:

Press enter or click to view image in full size

mCEX,i represents the number of coins on a certain CEX that have decreased by more than 50% in the i-th backdrop; MCEX,i represents the total number of listed coins on a certain CEX in the i-th backdrop.

The calculation results are shown in the figure below:

The results show that Bybit and MEXC once again prove their risk control capabilities, with halving rates consistently at the lowest level, significantly reducing the probability of your assets shrinking drastically. Binance's performance has also become increasingly strong in the later stages, demonstrating a powerful latecomer advantage.

Summary of Risk Control Capability:

Overall risk control top performers: Bybit and MEXC. Leading in both odds and halving rates, they are the best choice for investors seeking a balance between safety and returns.

New listing safe haven: If you are keen on new coins, Binance, Bybit, and Bitget provide a safer "new listing paradise" with their lower break-even rates.

II. High Potential Coin Listing Capability: Who is Always a Step Ahead

In the crypto world, time is money. An exchange's ability to keenly capture trends and quickly list potential coins directly determines whether you can "get on board" before the price rises. To study this issue, we tracked the listing rhythms of several representative coins from various sectors, such as PEPE, POPCAT, FARTCOIN, GOAT, INJ, AXS, revealing who has the keenest sense.

1. GAMEFi Sector

(1) AGLD

Gate, MEXC, and OKX were the first to list, followed closely by Binance. Bybit arrived late, perfectly missing the main surge.

(2) AXS

Users on Binance and KuCoin enjoyed almost all the price increase. OKX and Bitget listed when the market had not yet exploded, still offering opportunities. However, users on Gate and MEXC faced high-level correction risks, and Bybit's listing came after the market had ended.

2. RWA

(1) INJ

Initially launched on Binance and Gate. After experiencing a deep correction, it was listed on Bybit, Bitget, and MEXC, precisely timing the second round of increases. By the time OKX listed, the market was nearing its end.

(2) ONDO

Launched first on KuCoin, Gate, and Bybit, with MEXC following up. By the time it was listed on OKX and Binance, the price had already entered a correction phase.

3. AI

(1) FET

Initially launched on MEXC and Binance, it began a long bull run after a drop. Gate listed at a phase high, Bitget listed after a low platform and then saw an increase, while KuCoin faced a correction after listing, and Bybit and OKX accurately positioned themselves before the next market surge.

(2) GOAT

MEXC was the first to launch, followed by Gate, Bitget, Binance, and KuCoin during the upward trend. By the time Bybit and OKX listed, the feast was nearly over.

(3) NMR

NMR was subsequently listed on MEXC, Binance, OKX, Gate, KuCoin, Bitget, and Bybit.

4. Meme

(1) PEPE

Gate and MEXC are the biggest winners, allowing users to fully capture the significant early gains. Although OKX was late, there were still opportunities for major surges. However, by the time Binance and KuCoin listed, the market was already at its emotional peak, making it easy for investors to chase high prices.

(2) POPCAT

The plot repeats itself, with Gate and MEXC once again seizing the initiative. Bitget, OKX, and others, due to their later listings, missed out on a significant wave of increases after Bybit's launch.

(3) FARTCOIN

MEXC leads the way, exploding right from the start. Bitget follows closely behind. By the time Gate and KuCoin listed, the price had already fluctuated dramatically, increasing the risk significantly.

(4) MOODENG

This further confirms MEXC's sharpness in capturing early popular coins.

Summary

(1) From the four cases above, OKX and Binance tend to be more cautious when listing high-potential coins, which may cause you to miss some early wealth opportunities, but it also filters out some junk projects. In contrast, MEXC and Gate are known for their speed, providing investors with more opportunities for high returns.

It is important to note that speed is not always a good thing. Considering the previous break-even rate data, although Gate lists quickly, its new coins have a "very high break-even rate," making it a typical example of "high risk, high reward." Therefore, this capability must be viewed in conjunction with risk control capability.

(2) In the crypto space, there are significant differences in the explosive rhythms and listing logic of projects across different industries. Our analysis of the latest market data reveals that an exchange's industry sensitivity has become a key factor in determining whether investors can position themselves ahead of the curve.

Meme Sector: Only Fast, No Breaks, Early Dividends are Most Abundant

Represented by PEPE, POPCAT, and FARTCOIN, the lifecycle of meme coins is extremely short, and the speed of listing directly determines returns. MEXC and Gate continue to play the role of "Meme Launchpad," almost monopolizing the initial launches of all early star meme coins. Although OKX and Binance list later, their large user base can still drive coin prices into a second wave of major surges.

Investment Insight: Meme traders should focus 80% of their energy on MEXC and Gate, quickly entering on the first day of listing, and consider taking profits in batches when listed on Binance and OKX.

AI and Infra (Infrastructure): Gradual Listings, More Sustainable Value Discovery

AI and infrastructure projects have high technical thresholds and long value release cycles, with exchanges showing clear characteristics of "gradual listings." Binance is the preferred launch site for AI projects (such as FET), with its Alpha platform and IDO channels showing a clear preference for the AI sector. Bitget and Bybit excel at listing projects during the low platform phase after the first adjustment, providing second-entry opportunities for investors who missed the initial launch.

Investment Insight: The AI sector is suitable for "left-side layout, building positions in batches." You can establish an observation position at the Binance launch and increase investment after a price correction during the second listing on secondary platforms like Bitget.

GAMEFi and RWA: Dark Horses Emerge, Dark Horse Exchanges Quietly Rise

KUCOIN and Gate have shown remarkable foresight in the GAMEFi sector (such as AGLD), often launching potential projects ahead of Binance. Bybit and Bitget have a keen sense in the RWA (Real World Assets) sector (such as ONDO), accurately timing their listings and capturing complete price increases multiple times.

Investment Insight: In the GAMEFi and RWA sectors, where dark horses frequently emerge, in addition to closely monitoring leading exchanges, be sure to set price alerts on KUCOIN, Bybit, and Bitget.

Final Conclusion: There is No Best, Only the Most Suitable

Through the multi-dimensional data comparison above, we can clearly see that no single exchange leads comprehensively across all dimensions. Each platform presents unique risk-return characteristics due to its listing strategies, review standards, and user positioning.

Investment Recommendations:

If you are a conservative investor: Binance and OKX are your "safe havens." You may miss out on the wildest "meme coins," but you will achieve more stable returns, lower break-even rates, and a more secure trading environment.

If you are an aggressive investor: MEXC and KuCoin are your "adventure playgrounds." New listings come quickly, with a high density of "dark horses" and attractive odds, suitable for those with research capabilities who dare to take risks.

If you seek the ultimate risk-reward ratio: Bybit is a rare "hexagonal warrior." It achieves a perfect balance between risk control and profitability, making it the preferred choice for proactive fund managers.

If you are a seasoned "coin hunter": Gate offers the richest selection with its vast array of coins and lightning speed, but it is also where the "law of the jungle" is most pronounced, requiring you to have top-notch independent judgment skills.

Ultimately, choosing an exchange is a highly personalized decision, just like choosing an investment strategy. Understand your risk preferences and investment goals, and then choose the platform that best helps you achieve those goals; it will be your current "best money printer."

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。