Key Points:
Bitcoin is expected to end October with a decline, breaking a six-year streak of "Uptober" gains.
Traders are divided, with some worried about a significant pullback in the market, while others remain optimistic about new highs in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin (BTC) may end October with a decline for the first time in seven years, and opinions are mixed on whether the downtrend will continue into November.
After achieving "Uptober" gains for six consecutive years, Bitcoin may break this record this year.
October is affectionately referred to as "Uptober" because, since 2013, this month has brought Bitcoin the best single-month returns over the past decade, with only two declines occurring in 2014 and 2018.
The consecutive six-year gains from 2019 to 2024 further solidified this record.
With only a few hours left in the month, Bitcoin has dropped 3.35% in October, and the situation may reverse in 2025.
Analyst Jelle stated on the X platform: "On the last day of the month—today we need a strong rally, or we will witness the first 'Red October' in seven years."
The losses in October were exacerbated by a flash crash triggered by tariff threats between the U.S. and China mid-month, and the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday did little to boost investor sentiment.
"October turns red for the first time in seven years!" TraderAAG said in a post on X, adding:
Another analyst, Crypto Damus, noted that the volatility Bitcoin experienced this month is "not normal," as October has historically been the second-best month for BTC throughout the year.
There is nothing "normal" about this #BTC Volatility October is statistically the 2nd best month of the year for #BTC This is the worst October since the 2018 Bear Market and only the 3rd Red October since 2013 pic.twitter.com/zVjvJH1was
While some traders say the October decline is "just setting up for a bigger November rebound," others indicate that Bitcoin's bull market cycle has been shaken and may be nearing its end.
The last time BTC ended October with a decline was in 2018, and "November saw a brutal drop of 36.57%," analyst Crypto Rover said in a post on X on Friday, adding:
"What does a weak October mean for Bitcoin?" author and analyst Timothy Peterson asked in his latest post on X, adding that essentially "there is no correlation between October and subsequent months."
However, Peterson noted that typically, after a weak October, Bitcoin's growth slows down in the fourth quarter.
November has historically been Bitcoin's best-performing month, averaging a 46% increase over the past 12 years since 2013. According to CoinGlass, this makes the period from October to December the best quarter for BTC price increases, with an average rise of 78%.
Looking back in recent years, Bitcoin rose about 57% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 48% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The increase in 2017 was even more significant, rising 480% between October 1 and December 1.
Even during bear market cycles, such as -42% in 2018 and -15% in 2022, losses were exceptions. Nevertheless, the last quarter of the year always brings significant volatility.
If history serves as a reference, Bitcoin's price trend may reverse in November, soaring to $150,000 by the end of 2025.
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Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) Set for First 'Red October' in Seven Years: What Will November Bring?”
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