After refreshing its historical high, Bitcoin has entered the most critical price range of this cycle: approximately $110,000 to $112,000. Price consolidation does not imply stability; rather, it reflects an adjustment in the holding structure: long-term holders are gradually reducing their positions, while newly entering institutional buyers are absorbing the selling pressure. The redistribution of supply has lowered volatility and masked the structural tension that is brewing. The current market "equilibrium" resembles a critical balance—once a direction is triggered, it will lead to a dramatic trend change.
Supply Redistribution: Institutions Absorb, Old Holders Reduce Positions
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's realized market cap and low-frequency indicators like Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) have shifted towards defense, reflecting that long-term holders are cashing out profits in batches. Meanwhile, ETF fund flows have become a key variable: in late September, inflows totaled nearly $6 billion over nine trading days, driving prices up; however, in October, the inflow momentum quickly slowed due to tariffs and macro disturbances. If new demand cannot be sustained, the existing balance will be difficult to maintain.
It is noteworthy that the price has tested the 21-week moving average and the short-term realized price (STH Realized Price) multiple times; these two structural indicators have historically been the dividing line between bullish and bearish trends. If it falls below $110,000, the supply side will regain control of the market, and a short-term structural liquidation may be triggered.
Accumulation of Macro Disturbances: Strong Dollar and ETF Watchfulness Resonance
Recently, the U.S. dollar index has strengthened moderately, breaking the old logic that "a weaker dollar is good for Bitcoin." Historical experience shows that Bitcoin's sustained rise often occurs during periods of dollar weakness; conversely, when the dollar enters a strong phase, Bitcoin's performance is usually constrained. At the same time, the latest statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have weakened market expectations for "easing guarantees," causing long-only institutions to revert to a wait-and-see approach. The window for capital inflows before the end of the year is narrowing; if ETF funds do not restart inflows soon, the market balance may be disrupted, and the price center will shift down to the $85,000 to $100,000 range.
Bitcoin is currently in the structural rebalancing phase of this bull market. Market liquidity remains ample, and institutional participation has not diminished, but the tug-of-war in price ranges indicates that ownership is being transferred across generations. Short-term strategies should prioritize price discipline and risk control to avoid being swayed by narrative emotions. If ETF funds flow back in, this adjustment will become a buildup before the next rise; if capital stagnates, the market will complete rebalancing through a brief liquidation. This "calm" is not the end but rather the silence before a directional market explosion.
Some of the above views are from Matrix on Target, Contact Us_ to obtain the complete report from Matrix on Target._
Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
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