This wave of hunters is really satisfying. The trend short positions not only captured the top short but also secured several good add-on points: 112300 (3%), 111500 (3%), 109500 (3%), 108200 (5%). Most importantly, the bull-bear line has already been broken, so the short positions no longer have to endure the torment brought by volatility.

Currently, the total position is at 100x leverage with a 14% position ratio, which is relatively heavy. However, I have been gradually rolling over the positions, always using profits to balance the volatility. In other words, even if the market rebounds upwards, at least a 5000-point fluctuation would be needed for me to break even. But under the current circumstances, it is very difficult for the market to return above 107000. What follows is a slow decline that torments traders. This kind of torment is for those holding empty positions; for me, a slow decline is actually a good thing, and it is also good for friends who watch my articles and live streams.

My account currently has 10300U, and the four short positions are temporarily profitable:

• 112300 short position: 3% position, floating profit 2400U
• 111500 short position: 3% position, floating profit 2160U
• 109500 short position: 3% position, floating profit 1560U
• 108200 short position: 5% position, floating profit 1950U

Total: 8070U.

In the afternoon, I will choose to reduce my position by half at 103500-104000. From my perspective, the current position no longer allows me to add more; I need to appropriately reduce my position to balance the risk. Then on Wednesday, I will wait for a strong rebound to add positions back at the 106000-107000 level. This is my current thought, and I will provide evidence for the feasibility of this idea.

First, let’s review the specific changes in the market recently. The intuitive impression is torment, which is not only aimed at the bulls but also at the bears.

Since the time cycle is too long, I won’t discuss the distant market (it’s the same torment and manipulation, which I have described in previous articles). Let’s focus on the weekend's sideways fluctuations around 109500. After the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate cut, last week the market started a strong rise from 106000. This rise also began at the bull-bear boundary line, which technically marks the establishment of the second wave of upward theory after testing the trend line support.

From the perspective of retail investors, the market looks like this: it tests the trend line support at 106000, confirms support, and starts to rise. The market breaks through the 109500 top-bottom conversion pressure point, which then turns into a support level. Last weekend, the market kept rebounding upwards around the 109500 support. This indicates that last weekend, if one wanted to operate in the market, they could only passively go long, with no reason to short, except for breaking below 109500 to chase shorts.

Next, let’s match the market that has already occurred.

The 109500 repeatedly tested and confirmed support, with long positions entering and shorts waiting to chase below. On Monday morning, the market started, and the first wave broke below 109500, sweeping out short-term long positions while shorts entered. However, at this moment, the market immediately faked a break below 109500, quickly rebounding upwards to a high of 110700, knocking out the chasing shorts, and then unexpectedly starting a rapid decline. This accelerated decline directly brought the market to the bull-bear boundary line support point at 106800. Then, all afternoon on Monday, the market repeatedly tested upwards at the bull-bear boundary line, showing strong bottom support.

At this point, from the perspective of retail investors in the market, the situation is as follows:

The break below 109500 accelerated the decline, and they have realized that the bears are in control, but their reaction is too slow to keep up with the market's rhythm. By the time they realize the bears have taken over, the market has already dropped to the 106800 bull-bear boundary line, a solid floor price. At this moment, chasing shorts is too fearful. This is also why I urged everyone to short yesterday: to confront this fear. Everyone can see the floor but dares not chase shorts. This is the moment when the market makers raise their knives. You will find this is a deadlock. Yesterday, anyone who looked at the market could only rely on the floor price to go long; there was simply no position to short, nor any profit space. So what do you do? You tell me, you either stay empty and watch the market drop, or you chase shorts below the break, or you bottom-fish to go long.

We won’t discuss staying empty and watching; let’s just talk about bottom-fishing long and chasing shorts.

The first wave of the market relied on 106800, rebounding to a high of 108200, without giving a chance for the only short position at 108500 to enter. Since the shorts couldn’t enter, they still had to wait for a break, but the longs already saw hope for a rebound and entered massively.

The second wave of the market directly broke below 106800 with a large bearish candle on the hourly chart, hitting a low of 105300. Short-term longs were stopped out, and long-term bottom-fishing longs were trapped, while chasing shorts entered. The market then rebounded back to 107500, stopping out the chasing shorts, and bottom-fishing trend longs saw hope for a fake break upwards, re-entering short-term longs.

The third wave of the market, after repeatedly pulling at 107000, directly started a waterfall decline, and the market is now hovering around 104000.

Brothers, now through the hunter's narrative of last weekend and yesterday's market, do you understand? Do you feel this torment? Whether you are going long, short, or staying empty, it is very uncomfortable. Next, I want to tell you a harsh fact: if you are currently empty, you will definitely be stopped out if you short later, and you will definitely be trapped if you go long.

Why? Let me explain the reasons.

Just now, we reviewed the specific manifestations of the market's torment during this period. Everyone needs to understand one point: torment is just a means; the core purpose is to make the bears uncomfortable and continuously create hope for the bulls. Only when the voice of bottom-fishing still exists can the market steadily decline.

Last night, during the phase when the bull-bear line was broken, we talked about being stopped out when chasing shorts and short-term longs being stopped out. However, trend longs were not completely trapped because during the phase of breaking below the bull-bear line at 106800, the market was still experiencing repeated pulls at 107000, and the break did not happen in the late night but before midnight. Time-wise, it can also be seen that most retail investors were not resting. Seeing such weak rebounds, they were always aware that the market could accelerate downwards. Although they did not dare to chase shorts, trend longs could be freed from being trapped.

Now the core question arises: if trend longs are not trapped, who will pay for the profits of the downward trend if the market continues to decline?

Conclusion: The core element of operations this week is how to make bottom-fishing longs willingly enter the market and get trapped.

Since we want to trap the longs, we must give the bulls hope. The current slow decline rhythm cannot attract the bulls; it will only instill fear in them. Therefore, the key to solving this problem lies in giving the bulls hope. The upcoming market must show a sufficiently standard upward structure or pattern, accompanied by a big bullish candle.

Now you understand why the hunter wants to reduce the top short position, right? Why I just reminded everyone that as long as you are empty at this stage, going long will definitely get you trapped, and going short will definitely get you stopped out.

Having clarified the motivation for the upcoming market, we just need to look for clues accordingly.

Currently, the only supports visible on the market are 103500 and 101500. I want to state that I will not go long in this area, even if I know a big bullish candle will come out. I only need to find the points where shorts will be stopped out as my entry position for adding short positions.

How to construct a suitable upward pattern or structure in the 103500-101500 area is impossible to estimate. We don’t need to waste our thoughts on this; we can just wait for it to emerge. When this pattern structure appears, the first wave of the rebound will be aimed at stopping out the shorts. Therefore, the ideal short position for the bears is around 107000, which is the pressure point of the bull-bear line's top-bottom conversion. This position will inevitably accumulate a large number of short orders, which must be cleared out. On one hand, this is to prevent retail investors from getting on board for the subsequent decline, and on the other hand, it is to give hope for the bulls to rise back to the bull-bear line.

Next, our operation has only one point and one situation.

Observe the market's changes after it returns to 107000. If the market repairs back above 107000 and hovers repeatedly without further extending upwards, then breaking below this position again will be an excellent entry point for the second batch of shorts. The target for this wave of shorts will be 98000.

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