Event Review 📅

Recently, the price of ETH has experienced significant fluctuations, attracting widespread attention in the market. The U.S. government shutdown has led to a tightening of global liquidity, accelerating the outflow of funds from risk assets, which has buried deep hidden dangers for the crypto market. At the same time, several high-leverage traders have exposed their positions, triggering a series of liquidation events that further intensified the downward pressure on prices. For example, a well-known trader held a long position of 988 ETH with 25x leverage, and their liquidation price was only $3120, which is undoubtedly a typical case of concentrated market risk. Although some funds attempted to bottom-fish after the extreme volatility, leading to a partial rebound, overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a strong risk atmosphere.

Timeline ⏰

• 04:39: Market news reports that the ETH price has dropped to around $3200, initially showing signs of liquidity tightening.
• 04:56: A news flash reveals that a long position (988 ETH) with 25x leverage is facing liquidation risk, with the liquidation price locked in at around $3120.
• 04:57: The price further declines to approximately $3188.78, exacerbating market panic.
• 05:00: The ETH price fluctuates in the range of $3212-$3218, with initial contention between buyers and sellers, but market sentiment has begun to weaken.
• 05:00–05:31: In just 31 minutes, the price plummets from $3218 to $3106, a drop of about 3.48%, reflecting a surge in short-term selling pressure.
• 05:00–05:35: Another set of data shows that the ETH price crashed from $3212 to $3055, a decline of 4.87%, further confirming the spread of the liquidation effect.
• 05:34: A news flash indicates that ETH has fallen below the $3100 mark, trading at approximately $3102.18, nearing an important liquidation line.
• 05:37: The market crashes, with ETH's cumulative decline reaching 14%, and panic sentiment fully erupts.
• 05:52: Monitoring data shows that ETH has plummeted 15% on the day, with a series of chain liquidation effects undoubtedly manifesting.
• 06:00: After a brief rebound, the ETH price rises to about $3210.15, but overall volatility risk remains high.

Reason Analysis 🔍

The severe fluctuations in the ETH market can be attributed to the following two core reasons:

1. Global Liquidity Tightening

• The U.S. government shutdown has triggered cross-market funding tensions, with multiple reports indicating a large-scale outflow of funds from risk assets. Under the backdrop of capital withdrawal, the ETH price quickly came under pressure, indirectly affecting the entire crypto market.

1. High-Leverage Positions Triggering Liquidation Effects

• High-leverage positions face severe turbulence when the market turns sharply downward, forcing trading platforms to initiate forced liquidations. The chain liquidations not only rapidly expand selling pressure but also trigger emotional follow-up selling from other traders, accelerating the price decline.

These factors intertwine to create a dual blow to the current market's severe volatility.

Technical Analysis 📊

Data Source: Based on Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT 45-minute candlestick data

• Bollinger Bands and Buy/Sell Signals
  The price showed a brief rebound when it fell near the lower Bollinger Band, which may signal a buying opportunity in the near term, but overall movement along the lower band indicates short-term weakness.

• KDJ Indicator and TD Sequential Signals

• The KDJ indicator has shown a golden cross, which may suggest that some funds are buying on dips, but the divergence between indicators also indicates that the market remains in a state of intense long-short hedging in the short term.

• At the same time, the TD Sequential has shown a bullish Setup (9) and price reversal signals, which may indicate signs of a trend reversal in the short term, requiring close attention to whether the pullback support can hold.

• Moving Average System and Trend Judgment

• Short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20) are in a bearish arrangement, indicating strong downward pressure; medium to long-term moving averages (MA50, EMA120) are also sloping downward, suggesting that the overall downtrend has not yet ended.

• Some EMA indicators (e.g., EMA20 slope at -2.69%) indicate that the downward momentum remains strong, while EMA24 and EMA52 further confirm the medium to long-term downtrend.

• Volume Insights

• Recent trading volume has surged, with single large orders accumulating nearly $20 million, and long positions accounting for 68%, indicating that the market is unusually active amid panic sentiment.

• Major funds have net outflow of about $80 million in the past hour, which has also intensified the bearish pressure in the market.

In summary, although some technical signals show signs of a local reversal, the overall arrangement of moving averages and changes in volume still reveal strong bearish signals, with short, medium, and long-term trends leaning towards a downward direction.

Market Outlook 🧐

The future direction of the market will depend on the following key factors:

• Expectations for Liquidity Recovery
  If the U.S. government can quickly end the shutdown, global liquidity is expected to improve, helping risk assets regain some support; otherwise, the market will continue to be affected by tight funding in the short term.

• Leverage Positions and Liquidation Risks
  If high-leverage positions continue to trigger liquidations, it may initiate a larger chain reaction, further suppressing prices. Traders should continuously monitor whether key support levels (such as around $3100) can hold to prevent the market from falling into panic selling.

• Stabilization Signals from Technical Indicators
  Currently, some technical indicators (such as KDJ golden cross, TD Sequential bullish Setup) suggest that local buying on dips may occur, but the moving average system and large transaction data still warn of overall downward pressure. Investors are advised to closely monitor subsequent moving average trends and changes in capital flow to adjust their positions in a timely manner.

Overall, the current ETH market remains full of uncertainty. Investors should remain cautious, manage their positions reasonably, and avoid blindly chasing highs or cutting losses. The technical aspects show initial signs of reversal, but under the pressure of global liquidity tightening and leverage liquidation, the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Rational analysis and prudent operation remain the best strategies in the current market environment.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。